Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Echo of Wirtschaftswunder (October 27, 2014)
by Bill O’Grady Since the initial Greek financial crisis in 2010, economic and financial problems in the Eurozone continue to periodically emerge. The most recent issue is that the Eurozone may soon face deflation; price levels continue to decline. The current yearly CPI is up a mere 0.3%. Although the Eurozone did experience a bout of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Eighth Default of Argentina (October 20, 2014)
by Kaisa Stucke & Bill O’Grady Very few countries have seen as spectacular of a decline in its economic standing over the past 100 years as Argentina has. The country started the 20th century as one of the richest in the world, but has fallen behind as a result of its turbulent political history and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Dilma or No Dilma? (October 13, 2014)
by Kaisa Stucke & Bill O’Grady During the first round of Brazilian presidential elections on October 5, the incumbent Dilma Rousseff of the Workers’ Party received 42% of the votes while Aecio Neves of the Social Democracy Party received 34%. Since none of the candidates received more than 50% of the vote, the second round… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Welcome to the World, the Country of Catalonia? (October 6, 2014)
by Kaisa Stucke & Bill O’Grady On November 9, the Catalonia region of Spain is due to hold a referendum for independence. The referendum had previously been approved by the regional government; however, it was ruled unconstitutional by the Spanish Supreme Court. Currently, it is unclear whether the November 9 referendum would result in a… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ebola (September 29, 2014)
by Kaisa Stucke & Bill O’Grady Last week marked six months since the Ebola outbreak was identified in the African country of Guinea. The current Ebola epidemic is the largest, most severe and most complex outbreak of the disease in the history of the virus. More cases have been diagnosed and more people have died… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 28, 2014)
by Asset Allocation Committee At the founding of our asset allocation process in the second quarter of 2000, the prevailing method of asset allocation was strategic, which is usually defined as an allocation based on a time horizon of at least 7-10 years. However, in practice, strategic programs assumed that adjustments to the model were usually… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The TTIP and the TPP (January 27, 2014)
by Bill O’Grady The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a trade and investment treaty being negotiated between the European Union (EU) and the U.S. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a similar pact being negotiated between the U.S. and various Pacific Rim nations in both the eastern and western hemisphere. If enacted, both these trade… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Best Consumed Below Zero? (December 9, 2013)
by Kaisa Stucke & Bill O’Grady When ECB President Mario Draghi was asked at a recent press conference if the central bank would consider a negative deposit rate, Draghi answered that the institution has approached the question “with an open mind.” This topic is fascinating in terms of alternative options in monetary policy as well… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Elections in Chile (November 25, 2013)
by Bill O’Grady On November 17th, Chileans went to the polls to vote on a new president and parliament. Polls correctly forecasted that Michelle Bachelet, who was president from 2006-10, would win a plurality. She won a whopping 47% of the vote, beating seven other candidates handily. The second place finisher, Evelyn Matthei, won 25% of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – France and the Iranian Negotiations (November 18, 2013)
by Bill O’Grady Earlier this month, negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (U.S., U.K., France, China and Russia, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany) failed to reach an agreement despite great hopes that one was near. In fact, on expectations that a proposed nuclear deal was in the offing, U.S. Secretary… Read More »