Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2017)
Our inflation outlook remains benign and economic data continues to be modestly positive. We do not anticipate a recession in the near term. Though the composition of the Fed will change over the next four months, we expect policy to continue toward tightening through increases in the fed funds rate and a reduction in the… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here is a recap of what we are watching this morning: Xi elevated: Although the news is rather obscure to Western eyes, “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” was added to the Chinese constitution today. Such thoughts, such as Jiang Zemin’s… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part II (October 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we examined the Minsaengdan Incident and the onset of the Korean War. This week, we will discuss the final phase of the Korean War, the ceasefire, the introduction of Juche and the impact of the Cultural Revolution. The Korean War: The Latter Stages of the War and the Ceasefire Among the… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There was (and is) lots of news. Let’s dig in: Abe in a landslide: PM Abe’s gamble to call early elections looks like a winner. The LDP and the rest of Abe’s ruling coalition will take 313 seats, giving him a “supermajority” of more than 310… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 20, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Financial Accounts of the United States (formerly known as the Flow of Funds Report) is published by the Federal Reserve and provides data on the level of financial assets and liabilities by sector. Using this data, we can approximate the average asset allocation of American households over different periods. This accounting… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk-on returned to the financial markets this morning, with the dollar and equities higher and Treasuries and gold lower. The possibility that John Taylor could be the next Fed chair along with hopes of tax reform are boosting risk assets this morning. Chair talk: There are… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 19, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Something unusual is happening this morning…equity futures are pointing to a lower opening. At the time of this writing, S&P futures are indicating about a 0.5% decline. In the sea of calm we have been operating in, such a modest decline does look rather different. We… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Tax reform: Senate Republicans are moving closer to tax reform as 50 senators have agreed to begin debate on a budget resolution. In order for tax reform to happen, the Senate must first pass a budget appropriations bill. Currently, there appear to be a few… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 17, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. financial markets are quiet, but there is a lot going on again today. Here’s what we are watching this morning: Taylor to the Chair? John Taylor, the creator of the “Taylor Rule,” visited President Trump yesterday and, according to news reports, the president was very… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part I (October 16, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady The U.S. and North Korea have had a difficult history. The two countries were the primary combatants during the Korean War and still have not established a peace treaty. However, in the late 1970s, the Kim regime and the Carter administration considered normalizing relations. Carter’s national security team concluded there was little value… Read More »