Research & News
Daily Comment (June 12, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a discussion of the ECB’s decision to raise rates and its potential implications for other central banks. We then turn to the ongoing talks of renewing the USMCA before covering SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, and the latest developments in… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 11, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with takeaways from the latest CPI report and its implications for monetary policy. We then provide an update on the US-Iran conflict, followed by an analysis of the oil markets. Next, we briefly cover PIMCO’s growing concerns regarding financial… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 10, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with our thoughts on the growing concerns about AI. We then turn to geopolitics, examining the latest developments in the conflict between the US and Iran. Next, we briefly cover the EU cracking down on Meta, Middle Eastern countries… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 9, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF On a slow news day, our short Comment today opens with early signs of relatively disappointing demand for World Cup tickets, which could mean the economic stimulus from the event will be less than expected. We next review several other international and… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Excess Capacity and Policy Change (June 8, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF A key challenge of the big-picture, top-down investment analysis that we do at Confluence is tracing the real-world impact of a country’s economic policy initiatives. Whether policymakers are trying to boost economic growth, bring down price inflation, or achieve another goal, our aim is to figure out if the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 8, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a few words on the apparent rebound in risk-asset markets so far today. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets, including an update on the war in Iran and further… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 5, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new research that helps confirm our belief that China’s growing comprehensive power — political, military, economic, and technological — is giving it much more geopolitical leverage. We next review several other international and US developments that could… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 4, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with an assessment of recent business survey reports, including the ISM surveys and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. We then examine the rising political costs associated with the war in Iran. Next, we discuss European efforts to initiate peace… Read More »