Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly

Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the piece every other Monday.

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The FOMC Speaks (May 16, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF On May 4th, the FOMC announced its policy changes.  The Fed moved its fed funds target by 50 bps, the fastest increase in 22 years; the last hike of this amount was in May 2000.  In the press conference, Chair Powell scotched the notion of a greater than… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Tale of Two Surveys (May 2, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The Conference Board Survey of Consumer Confidence and the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment are two closely followed reports about the American consumer. Domestic consumption makes up about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so insights into consumer attitudes may predict changes in the business cycle. The… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Bank of Japan Cocks the Trigger (April 18, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In Hollywood movies, the classic device to convey a menacing threat is to have the tough-guy cop pull back the hammer on his revolver and cock the trigger.  It’s not enough that the cop just points his gun at the criminal.  Once you hear that “click,” you know… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Latin America’s Day in the Sun (April 4, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF As we’ve previously described in many of our publications, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the world in profound, long-lasting ways.  We have defined how it will further cleave the world’s nations into at least two major geopolitical blocs with limited commercial and financial ties.  We have… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – A Commodity Update (March 21, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Since the beginning of the year, commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, have been up 15.4%.  All other major asset classes are down for the year.  Among the S&P 500 sectors, only energy is positive.  Commodity prices were strong going into the war in Ukraine, but… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Believe It or Not, Fiscal Policy Is Tightening (March 7, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The U.S. economy and government economic policies have many moving parts, but investors often latch onto just one or two indicators or policy initiatives to gauge where asset prices are heading.  These days, their focus has been on consumer price inflation and the Federal Reserve’s plan to hike… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The U.S. Trade Deficit and Global Prices (February 22 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF When Democrats passed the CARES Act in January 2021, it was viewed initially as a political achievement. Polling from Politico/Morning Consult showed 75% of registered voters supported the bill three months after its passing. Meanwhile, Democrats began touting President Biden as the next Franklin D. Roosevelt. The legislation… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Gold: An Update of Current Conditions (February 7, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Gold moved steadily higher from the late summer of 2018 into August 2020.  Prices then declined toward $1,700 and have since traced out a trading range between $1,700 and $1,900.  In this report, we will update our views on the metal. (Source: Barchart.com) We have been holding gold… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Real Income versus the Wealth Effect; What is Driving Consumption? (January 24, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the debates within economics is whether consumption is driven by income or wealth.  The outcome of this debate is important for policymakers; if the goal of policy is lifting or constraining growth, knowing which factor is more important to consumption is critical.  For example, if the… Read More »

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