Asset Allocation Quarterly

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2023)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast includes a relatively mild recession followed by a recovery and the prospect for an economic expansion. Geopolitical tensions are elevated with heightened potential for increased turmoil in the Middle East. Inflation should moderate in the near-term but may reaccelerate within the forecast period due to… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2023)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast still includes a relatively mild recession followed by a recovery and the potential for an economic expansion. We expect inflation to moderate in the near-term but modestly re-accelerate in the back half of the forecast period given underlying structural influences. The Fed’s monetary policy is… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2023)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our forecast includes a normal recession, likely beginning later this year. We also expect a recovery during our three-year forecast period. The path of the Fed’s monetary policy will have an outsized effect on markets. Though market expectations are varied, we expect a measured path for fed funds.… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2023)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast contains a dynamic economic environment comprising both a normal recession and ensuing recovery. Upon signs of economic fragility, we expect the Fed to suspend its current assertive drive to quell inflation, with the likelihood that policymakers will cease their balance sheet reduction but will not… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In its battle against inflation, the Fed’s unrelenting tightening through the balance of this year and into next will be a major contributor to dampening demand. A worldwide economic contraction, inclusive of the U.S., is built into our three-year forecast. Our expectations are for a garden-variety recession in… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Global growth is clearly slowing and the probability of a recession in the U.S. over the next year is significantly elevated. The Fed is continuing its aggressive attack on inflation through rapid increases in the fed funds rate and accelerating its balance sheet reduction. Economic data from overseas… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In its efforts to combat inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve has adopted a much more hawkish monetary policy stance through a combination of raising the fed funds rate and reducing its balance sheet. Global central banks, in contrast, have varying policy responses ranging from extensively accommodative to increasingly… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We anticipate that economic growth will continue, but at a more modest pace than last year, and the potential for a recession within our three-year forecast period remains low. The Fed’s prior intransigence on inflation has yielded to a more hawkish stance leading to expectations for the curtailment… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although we expect the recovery’s rapid pace of growth to slow markedly, we believe the probability of a recession within our three-year forecast period is low. Supply shortages, labor issues, and their attendant impact on inflation are expected to abate over the next 12-18 months, leading to our… Read More »

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