Asset Allocation Quarterly
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Domestic economic growth is expected to be solid on continued supply chain rearrangement, the resulting domestic industrial production, and supportive fiscal stimulus. There is no recession in our forecast. With the Fed remaining data-dependent regarding the fed funds rate, we believe the likelihood is diminishing for multiple rate… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our forecast does not include a recession during the three-year period. The US economy is expected to be relatively strong throughout the forecast period. We expect heightened geopolitical tensions to persist as the deglobalization trend continues. Inflation is likely to remain higher due to structural forces such as… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The likelihood of a recession occurring during our forecast period has declined. Domestic economic growth should be robust over the forecast period, although momentum has slowed. Elevated geopolitical tensions and ambiguity related to the U.S. elections are likely to create volatility in the markets. Inflation volatility is likely… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast includes a relatively mild recession followed by a recovery and the prospect for an economic expansion. Geopolitical tensions are elevated with heightened potential for increased turmoil in the Middle East. Inflation should moderate in the near-term but may reaccelerate within the forecast period due to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast still includes a relatively mild recession followed by a recovery and the potential for an economic expansion. We expect inflation to moderate in the near-term but modestly re-accelerate in the back half of the forecast period given underlying structural influences. The Fed’s monetary policy is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our forecast includes a normal recession, likely beginning later this year. We also expect a recovery during our three-year forecast period. The path of the Fed’s monetary policy will have an outsized effect on markets. Though market expectations are varied, we expect a measured path for fed funds.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our three-year forecast contains a dynamic economic environment comprising both a normal recession and ensuing recovery. Upon signs of economic fragility, we expect the Fed to suspend its current assertive drive to quell inflation, with the likelihood that policymakers will cease their balance sheet reduction but will not… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In its battle against inflation, the Fed’s unrelenting tightening through the balance of this year and into next will be a major contributor to dampening demand. A worldwide economic contraction, inclusive of the U.S., is built into our three-year forecast. Our expectations are for a garden-variety recession in… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Global growth is clearly slowing and the probability of a recession in the U.S. over the next year is significantly elevated. The Fed is continuing its aggressive attack on inflation through rapid increases in the fed funds rate and accelerating its balance sheet reduction. Economic data from overseas… Read More »