Asset Allocation Quarterly

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2020)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We believe that we are now in an economic recovery which we expect to be long and slow moving. The Federal Reserve will likely continue to be aggressively accommodative, as will other global central banks, providing a favorable backdrop for equities. With an accommodative Fed, we retain elevated… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2020)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect the current U.S. recession to be deep, yet brief, with a long period of recovery and the potential for expansion toward the latter portion of our forecast period. The Federal Reserve has stabilized the financial markets and ensured the continued functioning of the corporate debt market.… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2020)

The prospect of a recession in the U.S. is nearly a foregone conclusion. The depth will likely be severe, but the duration could be brief. Actions over the past two weeks by the U.S. Federal Reserve should help mitigate the economic crisis, potentially avoiding problems faced in past downturns. The stimulus package signed into law… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2020)

The U.S. election season and the more dovish composition of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors should ensure policy accommodation continues in the near-term. The recent resolution of trade policies with China and the prospect for finalization of USMCA produces an environment where corporate capital can be deployed with less uncertainty. Although we hold a… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2019)

The U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks are expected to continue their accommodative postures, especially considering issues stemming from trade impediments. While we retain a relatively sanguine view of the U.S. economy over our three-year cyclical forecast period, we recognize there is increased potential for an economic downturn. Each strategy reflects a more neutral… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2019)

We maintain our sanguine view of the economy and markets, though it is more guarded than last quarter. We expect the Federal Reserve to implement easier policy in the third quarter, marking its first rate reduction since 2008. In the absence of a recession, which is not in our forecast, the rate reduction should lead… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2019)

The Federal Reserve shifted fully from its hawkish stance at the beginning of the year. We anticipate that the committee will maintain its newly dovish stance with the potential for further monetary accommodation. Though the employment/population ratio has improved, we find it still indicates slack in the labor force, blunting the full impact of wage… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2019)

Our expectations are that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, albeit at a more modest pace of 2.7% While we anticipate the current economic expansion will become the longest on record this March, the risk of a downturn rises toward the end of our three-year forecast period We expect the Fed to suspend its… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2018)

The U.S. economy is stable and growing, with sentiment indicators remaining high. A recession is not included in our cyclical forecast. The Fed’s tightening policy has thus far had modest effects. We expect a continuation of increases in the fed funds rate in tandem with a reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. Though unemployment is… Read More »

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