Research & News
Keller Quarterly (October 2017)
Letter to Investors In my last letter I wrote of the tendency of investors to think of the economy and the markets as linear phenomena, rather than cyclical phenomena. In other words, an inclination to think that a good economy will continue its upward path forever unless some villain intercedes and causes a recession. However,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although overall market activity is quiet this morning, there is a good bit of news. Here is what we are watching this morning: Catalonia blinks—Rajoy presses: Yesterday, Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont declared and suspended independence, asking for talks with Madrid. PM Rajoy is having none of… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although it was mostly quiet overnight, we are awaiting a potential declaration of independence from Catalonia. Here is what we are tracking this morning: A declaration of independence? Catalan Leader Carles Puigdemont is expected to address the regional parliament in Barcelona at 11:00 EDT amid growing… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Four Horsemen of Leveling: A Book Review (October 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Occasionally, we find a book that has such an interesting message that we dedicate a Weekly Geopolitical Report to reviewing it. This week, we will look at The Great Leveler by Walter Scheidel.[1] The book is an extensive historical analysis of inequality and the factors that reduce it. In this report, we will… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a slow news morning. Columbus Day is being celebrated, which means the Federal Government and Treasury market are closed. Equities are open. Here is what we are tracking this morning. A Turkish spat: Turkish financial markets have been roiled this morning after both the U.S.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 6, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The latest FOMC meeting and subsequent comments from Chair Yellen have increased the likelihood of a December rate hike. This chart shows the implied likelihood of a rate hike compared to steady policy from fed funds futures for the December meeting. In early December, the projected odds of a hike were just… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment data day! We cover the release in detail below but the quick view is the report is mixed; payrolls actually declined but the unemployment rate did, too. The data was affected by weather events. The dollar rose on the news and Treasury yields rose… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are very quiet again this morning in front of the employment data on Friday. Here is what we are watching: PM May’s no good, very bad day: With compliments to Judith Viorst,[1] the Tory PM has had a really rough run recently. She was… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are very quiet again this morning in front of the employment data on Friday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed chair decision: President Trump has distilled a short list for replacing (or, perhaps, reappointing) the position of Fed chair. Below is… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are very quiet this morning. Because it’s quiet, let’s take a look at Europe: Catalonia, Spain and the EU: Every nation is a construct. It is built on a social contract that offers various public goods in exchange for membership. First and foremost, states… Read More »