Research & News

Asset Allocation Weekly (February 15, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee The pullback in equities in Q4 coincided with a sharp drop in long-duration Treasury yields.  However, the recovery seen in early 2019 has not led to a rise in yields. This chart shows the S&P 500 (left axis) and the 10-year T-note yield (right axis).  Note that yields and the equity markets… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 15, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are steady to higher this morning in quiet trading.  There is some optimism on the China/U.S. trade talks and on the Fed’s balance sheet.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade talks: Although there isn’t much evidence of real progress (e.g.,… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 14, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy St. Valentine’s Day!  U.S. equity futures are trending higher this morning in quiet trading.  Here is what we are watching: White House calming markets: The president is reportedly considering pushing back the trade deadline by 60 days and backing a border security bill that would… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 13, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are trending higher this morning in quiet trading.  Here is what we are watching: Brexit: PM May has asked for more time to negotiate with Brussels.[1]  Apparently, she is still seeking changes to the Irish backstop, although there isn’t much evidence at this… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 12, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are trending higher this morning after a mostly flat day yesterday.  The big news is that negotiators have reached a deal to avoid a government shutdown.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Shutdown averted: Negotiators have reached a deal to avoid… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Nigerian Election (February 11, 2019)

by Thomas Wash (N.B. Due to the President’s Day holiday, the next report will be published February 25.) On February 16, 2019, Nigeria will hold its sixth presidential election since it ended military rule in 1999. President Muhammadu Buhari, who has been rumored to be in bad health after disappearing from public view for weeks at… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 11, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are trending higher this morning after a later rally on Friday.  It’s the 40th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution.[1]  Here is what we are watching today: Trade: Talks between China and the U.S. will restart next week; the focus on this round will… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (February 8, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee Gold is considered by some to be a commodity, but we treat it as a non-liability-backed currency.  In other words, gold isn’t created because someone makes a loan.  Instead, it is created by mining.  In addition, most commodities are consumed but much of the gold refined through the ages still exists.  In… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 8, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are under pressure again this morning.  Here is what we are watching today: Trade: Yesterday, we noted that the lack of dollar depreciation was starting to become a problem for equities.  Although the reversal of the FOMC on monetary policy is, by itself,… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 7, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are under pressure again this morning.  Here is what we are watching: What’s eating the market?  We are seeing a series of foreign central bank easing actions or signals thereof.  Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the markets with a rate cut. … Read More »

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