Research & News

Daily Comment (October 30, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s Friday, the last one in October; have a safe Halloween, everyone!  Equity markets are back in the red, despite impressive earnings from the large tech firms.  China starts our coverage; the plenum session is over, and the next five-year… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (October 30, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Many investment managers think of “foreign equities” as one big, monolithic asset class and leave it at that.  When setting a portfolio’s asset allocation strategy, many simply assign a certain percentage to the asset class and implement it by investing in a broad international index fund.  Here at Confluence,… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 29, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning.  It’s GDP day!  After two brutal down days, mostly driven by worsening infection rates and the lack of fiscal support, equity markets are trying to recover.  As expected, GDP had a historic recovery, up 33.1% (q/q% annualized).  This… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 28, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Before turning to the daily news, we want to note that our Asset Allocation Rebalance Chart Book for the fourth quarter is now available on Vimeo.  In this video, we review our asset allocation process, detail our quarterly portfolio adjustments,… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 27, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Before turning to the daily news, we want to mention that our latest Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available here.  This edition discusses our outlook for how U.S. foreign policy is likely to develop in the coming years depending… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Election of 1876: Part II (October 26, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF Last week, we outlined the history of the presidential election of 1876.  This election was disputed and required a special commission to resolve.  This week, we will begin with a discussion of our current procedure for electing presidents and the impact of partisanship on the existing environment.  We will use… Read More »

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