Research & News

Daily Comment (February 27, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equity markets are down again due to the continued spread of COVID-19.  U.S. futures are down this morning.  We update the latest on the virus, including some thoughts about the Fed’s reaction function.  Despite everything, U.S. housing data is looking remarkably… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 26, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equity markets continue under pressure this morning, despite rumors that some Asian “national teams” are trying to support the market.  U.S. equity futures are trying to stabilize.  We update the COVID-19 news, along with an update on Brexit.  Here are the… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 25, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After a deep selloff yesterday, equity markets around the world are mixed.  We are seeing some retreat in the flight-to-safety assets after a massive rally yesterday in gold and Treasuries.  As usual, we update news on the COVID-19.  The president wraps up… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of Changing Demographics: Part II (February 24, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In Part I of this report, we looked at current key global population trends.  The report showed how plunging birth rates have been weighing on population growth and boosting average ages all over the world, potentially having a huge impact on the distribution of geopolitical power, economic prospects and future investment… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 24, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s “red Monday” – global equities are taking a hit as the COVID-19 virus is starting to look like a global pandemic.  Risk assets are down around the world while most risk-off assets, gold and Treasuries, are rallying.  We cover three elections… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (February 21, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions.  The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence.  The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 21, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s Friday!  Virus worries lead to mixed equity markets but a distinct element of worry—gold—continues to move higher despite dollar strength.  Treasury yields continue to fall.  However, the other flight-to-safety asset, the JPY, has failed to rally this time on fears of… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 20, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equities are mixed this morning with U.S. equity futures taking a breather.  We update the COVID-19 news.  The Fed is warming up to the economy.  U.K. changes immigration rules.  A new DNI.  The president is off to India.  Trouble in Argentina. … Read More »

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