Research & News

Daily Comment (October 11, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Happy Friday!  It’s a day starting with great optimism.  It appears that a mini-trade deal may have been struck with China.  There seems to be progress on Brexit.  On the darker side, an Iranian oil tanker was struck by missiles in the Red Sea.  Here are… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 10, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA As the Nationals staged a remarkable comeback to earn the right to play the Cardinals for the National League pennant, the financial markets were roiled over conflicting stories of the trade talks.  Turkey threatens the EU.  The EU issues an ultimatum to Johnson.  The ECB and… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 9, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA On the eve of trade talks, hopes of a thaw are boosting risk markets this morning.  Powell coos.  Fed minutes at 2:00.  Here is what we are watching today: Trade thaw?  Equity futures lifted this morning on reports that China, despite all the turmoil over visas… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 8, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Equities are weaker this morning two days before China/U.S. trade talks.  Uncertainty reigns on the Syria/Kurd issue.  Brexit looms. Here are some of the details: China:  There are two news items regarding China that have sent equities lower.  First, the U.S. has added 28 Chinese entities… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part II (October 7, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In Part I of this report, we reviewed the history of Japanese-Korean relations over the last several centuries, highlighting the Japanese invasions of Korea in the 1590s and 1890s, Japan’s assassination of a Korean queen in 1895, and Japan’s colonization of Korea from 1910 to 1945.  We also showed how Japanese… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 7, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Happy Monday (is it just me? Or are weekends getting shorter?)!  It’s a big week—the Fed releases its minutes on Wednesday, we get CPI on Thursday and Chinese officials are in town for trade talks.  Here are some of the details: China talks:  It appears that… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (October 4, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee Although the convention for measuring earnings is compared to shares, Standard and Poor’s also calculates the level of operating earnings for all the stocks in the S&P 500. The per-share value is calculated by dividing this number by the S&P divisor.  The advantage of this number versus the per-share data is that… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 4, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment Friday!  We cover the data below, but the quick take is that the report is mixed.  The drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5%, a new cycle low, is impressive.  However, wage growth for non-supervisory workers fell to 3.5% from… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 3, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are mostly flat this morning after two sharp down days.  Johnson has a new Brexit plan.  The WTO approves U.S. retaliatory tariffs against the EU.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Equity worries:  Equity markets have taken a… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 2, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another risk-off day so far this morning.  Residual worries about the economy continue to dominate.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Reviewing ISM manufacturing:  As you are all aware by now, the ISM manufacturing data for September came in… Read More »

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