Research & News

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Malevolent Hegemon: Part III (December 10, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady This week, we conclude our series by describing what we view as a new model for the superpower role, the Malevolent Hegemon.  We will discuss the differences between this model and the previous one.  With this analysis in place, we will examine the potential outcomes from this shift and conclude with potential market… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 10, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Monday, Monday…global equity markets have been coming under pressure but U.S. equity futures have recovered in the past hour.  It looks like pessimism has become excessive and maybe a rebound is in the offing.  Here is what we are watching: Equities remain jittery: Friday’s equity market… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (December 7, 2018)

by Asset Allocation Committee The election of Donald Trump has been characterized as part of a populist uprising.  In the president’s inaugural address, he talked about the “forgotten” that would have a voice in his administration.  At the same time, we work under John Mitchell’s dictum of “watch what we do, not what we say.”[1] In… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 7, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Seventy-seven years ago, Japanese Imperial forces bombed Pearl Harbor.  It’s also employment day.  We detail the data below but here is the quick take—the data was a bit soft, with payrolls coming in below forecast at 155k, below the forecast of 198k.  The rest… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 6, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a major risk-off day so far.  The key issues are an arrest and its impact on trade and a difficult OPEC meeting.  Here are the details and other items we are watching: The arrest of Meng Wanzhou: Yesterday evening, Canadian[1] officials announced they had apprehended[2]… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 4, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: Due to tomorrow’s National Day of Mourning and the closure of financial markets and the government, we will not publish the Daily Comment tomorrow.  We will return to our regular schedule on Thursday.) Good morning!  The euphoria of yesterday has dissipated to some degree. … Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Malevolent Hegemon: Part II (December 3, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady In Part I, we examined the basic role of the hegemon and the unique model the U.S. has created, which we dubbed the “Benevolent Hegemon.”  This week, we discuss why many Americans have become disenchanted with this model, which is pressuring policymakers to either jettison the superpower role or significantly redefine it.  Next… Read More »

Daily Comment (December 3, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning!  There is great joy in the financial and commodity markets this morning.  Here is what we are watching today: The G-20 and China talks: To some extent, we got the deal we were expecting.  Presidents Trump and Xi essentially agreed to a 90-day truce.[1] … Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (November 30, 2018)

by Asset Allocation Committee As the FOMC raises rates, there are increasing concerns about the credit markets.  After a long period of low rates, credit spreads are starting to widen, raising fears of financial stress.  In this report, we will look at these concerns. First, here is what we are seeing with credit spreads: This chart… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 30, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning!  It’s a very quiet market this morning.  Equities continue to consolidate in front of this weekend’s G-20 meeting.  Here is what we are watching today: The G-20 and China talks: We expect some sort of short-term accommodation at this weekend’s meeting.  We look for… Read More »

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