Research & News

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Afghanistan, Part III: Russia and Central Asia (September 27, 2021)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In Part I of this report, we reviewed the history of Afghanistan and why great powers have fought over it for centuries.  In Part II, last week, we examined how the United States exit from Afghanistan will affect Pakistan, India, and Iran.  This week, our focus is on how… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 27, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday, the last one for September 2021 (time flies!).  U.S. equity futures are mostly flat this morning, while crude oil is near a three-year high.  Our coverage leads off with the German elections, which were something… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 24, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning, all! U.S. equity futures are signaling a lower open this morning. Today’s report begins with an Evergrande (EGRNF, USD, 0.3550) update and international news roundup. Next, we cover U.S. economics and policy developments. China news follows, and we… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – The Supply Side Worry on Inflation (September 24, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the 1970s, the U.S. had a serious inflation problem.  By the end of the decade, it had become the most critical economic policy issue.  Although inflation can be a complicated topic, one way of simplifying it is to see it through the intersection of aggregate supply and… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 23, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning!  U.S. equity futures are higher this morning as the market digests the continuing Evergrande (EGRNF, USD, 0.40) issue and the Fed meeting.  Our coverage begins with the FOMC meeting.  Evergrande is up next, followed by China news.  We… Read More »

Weekly Energy Update (September 23, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Prices continue to hold above $70 per barrel. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 3.5 mb compared to the 2.8 mb draw forecast.  The SPR declined 1.2 mb, meaning the net draw was 4.7 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose 0.5… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 22, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Today’s Comment begins with a range of U.S. news, touching on monetary policy, fiscal policy, bond market regulation, and relations with China.  We next review the major international developments that could affect the financial markets today, including the latest information… Read More »

Daily Comment (September 21, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF In today’s Comment, we open with a discussion of new global inflation forecasts from the OECD and include some notes on monetary policy and inflation.  We next turn to a range of U.S. and international developments that could impact the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Afghanistan, Part II: Pakistan, India, and Iran (September 20, 2021)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF Afghanistan is a landlocked nation that sits at the crossroads of central Asia.  As our history noted last week, it was part of the “Great Game” in the 18th and 19th centuries when imperial powers Russia and Britain vied for control of the region.  It continued to hold that role… Read More »

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