Research & News

2020 Outlook Update #2: Storm Warning (March 27, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller We have been updating our 2020 Outlook to keep you informed of our thoughts as conditions evolve. We have refreshed some of the charts from our update last week and added new comments, included below in bold. Update #2: March 27, 2020 | Update #1: March 16, 2020 Summary—High… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (March 27, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee We continue to monitor the path of the economy and markets as our expectations for a recession loom.  This week we will update our S&P 500 earnings forecast for 2020. We use two components to build our forecast for S&P per share earnings.  First, we need to estimate GDP.  Normally, we use… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 27, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday as we wrap up another long week.  After three days of vigorous equity rallies, we are taking a breather this morning.  We update all the COVID-19 news.  Venezuela’s president is indicted.  Israel has a new unity government.  Here are the… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 26, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The long-awaited initial claims data is out; we offer details below, but claims rose a record 3.28 mm.  After a two-day respite, equities have turned lower.  As we note below, the Senate has passed a $2.0 trillion spending package.  As usual, we… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 25, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] For the first time in ages, it actually feels right to say, “Happy Wednesday,” given the historic surge in U.S. stocks yesterday (the Dow’s rise of more than 11% was its best daily gain since 1933).  Just as important, Republicans and Democrats… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 24, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] As Tuesday dawns and financial markets surge, it’s important to remember that true market stabilization amidst the pandemic would probably require three things: 1) full support for the economy and financial markets by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks; 2)… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – On Optimization (March 23, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady In our discussions of COVID-19, we have noted that part of the reason the virus has been so disruptive is because the world has adopted a stance that optimization is an unalloyed positive.  When I was in graduate school, I participated in a seminar with several professional private sector economists.  A question… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 23, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s Monday.  Global markets remain in risk-off mode after the Senate’s first swing at the third phase of the rescue package fails.  BREAKING: FED GIVEN BROADER POWERS TO INTERVENE IN FINANCIAL MARKETS—MORE BELOW—S&P FUTURES RECOVER.  We update the COVID-19 virus news. Here… Read More »

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