Research & News

Asset Allocation Weekly (March 22, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee One factor we have been tracking is the recent behavior of retail money market funds.  We have noted that households began building money market funds about the time that the equity market peaked and U.S. trade policy began to turn toward protectionism.  In the coming months, money market funds continued to rise… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 22, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equity markets are mixed today following weak manufacturing data in Europe and the president’s hints that a trade deal with China is close to fruition. Below are the stories we are currently monitoring: Brexit extension: On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that the… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (March 21, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have been volatile over the past few months. In October, OPEC producers increased output in anticipation of U.S. sanctions on Iran.  However, the Trump administration granted more waivers for Iranian exports than anticipated, leading to more oil supply.  As the above chart shows, prices plunged, falling from $78… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 21, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Bond yields continue to decline while equities come under pressure.  Here is what we are watching this morning: The FOMC: A dovish outcome was expected and the Fed delivered.  First, the dots plot was lowered, projecting no rate changes this year and only one more… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 20, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Fed Day!  The FOMC finishes its meeting today.  Other than that, markets are very quiet.  Here is what we are watching this morning: The FOMC: As we noted on Monday, the financial markets have the Fed on hold for the foreseeable future.  This is… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 19, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are broadly higher this morning; the only exception is the dollar, which is coming under some modest pressure.  Other than that, it’s a very quiet morning as we await the Fed.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: PM May was… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Modern Monetary Theory: Part II (March 18, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this four-part series, we introduced this report and discussed the origin narratives of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).  This week, we will examine the principles and consequences of the theory. Principles of MMT[1] MMT begins its analysis with a focus on macroeconomic identities and flows.[2]  The theory states that the… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 18, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a modest risk-on day on this Monday in late winter.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed meeting: As noted last week, the FOMC meets this week.  Although there are hopes that the Fed may set the terminal level for the balance… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (March 15, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee The Financial Accounts of the United States, formerly known as the Flow of Funds Report, was released last week.  It is a plethora of information about the state of the economy.  Below we discuss the charts we find most noteworthy. First, here is the saving balance by sector. The tax cut has… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 15, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Ides of March Friday!  The National Party Congress (NPC) ended in China and New Zealand is reeling from a mass shooting.  U.S. equity futures are higher.  Here is what we are watching this morning: The National Party Congress: Unlike previous events, this one was… Read More »

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