Research & News

Asset Allocation Weekly (January 18, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets struggled in 2018; although new highs were achieved twice during the year, volatility was elevated compared to 2017. This is a chart of the CBOE VIX index, a measure of implied volatility from the equity options market.  An elevated VIX means implied volatility is high, which implies a wider dispersion… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 18, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday!  Equities are moving higher this morning.  Here is what we are watching today: About those tariffs: Yesterday, equity prices were jolted higher on reports that the Trump administration was considering rolling back tariffs on China. This chart shows March S&P futures; note the jump… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 17, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are drifting lower this morning.  Here is what we are watching: Brexit: After facing the largest defeat in modern Parliamentary history, PM May survived a no-confidence vote but not by a great margin.[1]  We have been discussing Brexit at length, so we don’t have much… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 16, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] All eyes are on the U.K. but financial markets are coping with the uncertainty rather well.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: PM May suffered a historic defeat. It is the largest defeat in the modern era, with her margin of defeat at… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2019)

Our expectations are that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, albeit at a more modest pace of 2.7% While we anticipate the current economic expansion will become the longest on record this March, the risk of a downturn rises toward the end of our three-year forecast period We expect the Fed to suspend its… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 15, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are roughly flat, giving up most of their overnight gains.  Asia was higher on hopes of Chinese stimulus, but the big news is that today is Brexit Day.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: So, it all comes down to… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Inflections: Part II (January 14, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we discussed the issues surrounding predicting inflection points, which are defined as reversals of long-term trends.  In this week’s issue, we will examine two long-term trends that we believe are approaching inflection points and offer guideposts that we think will signal further progress toward inflection.  For regular… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 14, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s risk-off this morning.  Global equities are lower on fears of a Chinese economic slowdown and on the U.S. government shutdown.  Here is what we are watching this morning: China: December exports fell 4.4%,[1] well more than forecast, but imports fell even more, slumping 7.6%.  The… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (January 11, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee Does the Federal Reserve adjust policy for asset prices?  This is perhaps one of the most controversial topics in U.S. monetary policy.  Alan Greenspan faced this issue in the early 1990s.  Both Volcker and Greenspan wanted to focus monetary policy on containing inflation.  But, Larry Lindsey, a Fed governor at the time,… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 11, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are modestly lower this morning in a very quiet market.  Yesterday, we started the day lower but moved higher.  Although much of the rally was probably due to Chair Powell’s “patient” speech, it also points to a different market tone.  Last month, rallies… Read More »

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