Research & News

Asset Allocation Weekly (January 17, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee The December employment data showed three interesting developments that are worth discussing.  They are wage growth, hours worked and the level of “out of the workforce.” Wage growth:  For most of last year, production and non-supervisory wage growth was outpacing that of overall workers.  This development suggested that ordinary workers were finally… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 17, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday!  Equity markets continue to grind steadily higher to new record levels.  The White House officially nominated the two last open governor positions on the FOMC.  An update on the Iran missile attack and other Iran issues.  Germany is holding a… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 16, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Good morning!  Equity markets continue to grind steadily higher; in fact, it’s the third longest streak since 1995 of the major indices not moving more than 1% in either direction.  Why?  Our quick take is that we are seeing the combination of… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 15, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Good morning!  It was a very quiet overnight session as markets await the signing of the Phase One deal with China.  Here is what we are watching this morning: BREAKING:  Russian PM Medvedev resigned this morning along with the entire Russian government. … Read More »

Daily Comment (January 14, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Markets are quiet this morning as earnings season begins.  Trade is the biggest headline, as the U.S. and China are expected to sign a deal tomorrow.  Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade:  First, the U.S. and China are expected… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – After Soleimani (January 13, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, our next report will be published on January 27.) On January 3rd, the U.S. launched a missile strike that killed Major General Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  As a high-profile commander, his death… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 13, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Monday!  Much of the U.S. is digging out of wintry weekend weather.  Equities continue their grind higher.  Tensions in Iran soar after the government admitted it accidently downed a Ukrainian airliner.  The DPP wins big in Taiwan.  The U.S./China trade deal… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (January 10, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee In our 2020 Outlook, we discussed three risks to the forecast, with one of them being a “melt-up” or a dramatic rise in stock prices.  One of the key factors that could bolster higher prices for risk assets would be the idea that the FOMC has engineered a soft landing, which is… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 10, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment day Friday!  We cover the data in detail below, but the quick take is that the data is a bit soft as nonfarm payrolls rose by only 145k, less than the 165k forecast.  The big news was a plunge in… Read More »

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