Keller Quarterly

Keller Quarterly (April 2020)

Letter to Investors Today I write this quarterly client letter in the midst of a recession, one that three months ago I did not see coming.  As noted in our January letter (and even italicized): We cannot predict the future.  I suspect we have proved that by now.  Successful long-term investing does not depend on… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (March 16, 2020)

Letter to Investors The last three weeks of financial market turbulence have been among the most harrowing I’ve ever seen.  To my memory it’s been a combination of October 1987 and October 2008, two months I’d prefer to forget.  While the stock market was dropping sharply and quickly, U.S. Treasury bonds were soaring almost as… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (January 2020)

Letter to Investors You don’t need me to tell you this, but 2019 was an unusually good year for the public financial markets.  Virtually every market rebounded nicely from the sharp sell-offs that occurred in late 2018.  How broad was the advance?  Confluence Investment Management’s Asset Allocation team tracks 12 major asset classes globally, consisting… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (October 2019)

Letter to Investors I recently had the opportunity to give a talk to a large group of investment advisors, many of whom were longtime friends.  Even though we knew each other well, given the times we’re in I felt compelled to begin with a two-part preamble concerning investing that I sometimes give when speaking to… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (July 2019)

Letter to Investors I’m writing to you at the end of a week in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 27,000 for the first time ever and in which the S&P 500 crossed 3,000 for the first time ever.  There’s something about these market averages reaching “all-time highs” that increases fears in the hearts… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (April 2019)

Letter to Investors The last half-year has demonstrated the day-to-day inscrutability of the financial markets, and with it the impossibility of predicting them. Suppose that last year on September 18 you had the misfortune of bumping your head and, in Rip Van Winkle fashion, fell into an unconscious slumber that lasted exactly seven months. On… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (January 2019)

Letter to Investors If you’re like most investors, you’re probably delighted to see 2018 in the rearview mirror.  It was a year in which the stock market began on a euphoric note, in a January that proved to be the last month of a nearly two-year rising market.  Indeed, from February 2016 to late January… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (October 2018)

Letter to Investors Here we are just a little more than three-quarters of the way through 2018.  While many might regard this as a rather unusual year for the stock market, it really hasn’t been all that unusual.  This is true even though the market is now experiencing its second downturn of greater than 5%… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (July 2018)

Letter to Investors The “choppiness” of the stock market, of which we wrote last quarter, continues.  Even though the U.S. stock market, as represented by the S&P 500, has been working its way upward since early April, it still stands 2.6% below its high for this year (reached on January 26th).  As we noted last… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (April 2018)

Letter to Investors As you well know, the U.S. stock market has been selling off for about ten weeks now.  From some of the calls I’ve been getting, one would expect that another Great Crash is upon us.  There is little evidence to suggest, however, that this is anything more than a normal correction in… Read More »

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