Keller Quarterly

Keller Quarterly (July 2019)

Letter to Investors I’m writing to you at the end of a week in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 27,000 for the first time ever and in which the S&P 500 crossed 3,000 for the first time ever.  There’s something about these market averages reaching “all-time highs” that increases fears in the hearts… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (April 2019)

Letter to Investors The last half-year has demonstrated the day-to-day inscrutability of the financial markets, and with it the impossibility of predicting them. Suppose that last year on September 18 you had the misfortune of bumping your head and, in Rip Van Winkle fashion, fell into an unconscious slumber that lasted exactly seven months. On… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (January 2019)

Letter to Investors If you’re like most investors, you’re probably delighted to see 2018 in the rearview mirror.  It was a year in which the stock market began on a euphoric note, in a January that proved to be the last month of a nearly two-year rising market.  Indeed, from February 2016 to late January… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (October 2018)

Letter to Investors Here we are just a little more than three-quarters of the way through 2018.  While many might regard this as a rather unusual year for the stock market, it really hasn’t been all that unusual.  This is true even though the market is now experiencing its second downturn of greater than 5%… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (July 2018)

Letter to Investors The “choppiness” of the stock market, of which we wrote last quarter, continues.  Even though the U.S. stock market, as represented by the S&P 500, has been working its way upward since early April, it still stands 2.6% below its high for this year (reached on January 26th).  As we noted last… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (April 2018)

Letter to Investors As you well know, the U.S. stock market has been selling off for about ten weeks now.  From some of the calls I’ve been getting, one would expect that another Great Crash is upon us.  There is little evidence to suggest, however, that this is anything more than a normal correction in… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (January 2018)

Letter to Investors Welcome to 2018!  The stock and bond markets did much better in 2017 than most participants expected, by my reckoning.  This has led to an unusually large proportion of the forecasts for this year predicting dire outcomes, also by my reckoning.  Predicting the future is impossible, of course, but that doesn’t stop… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (October 2017)

Letter to Investors In my last letter I wrote of the tendency of investors to think of the economy and the markets as linear phenomena, rather than cyclical phenomena.  In other words, an inclination to think that a good economy will continue its upward path forever unless some villain intercedes and causes a recession.  However,… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (July 2017)

Letter to Investors It’s terribly hot here in the Midwest.  It wouldn’t be a normal Missouri summer if it didn’t touch 100 degrees for a week or two.  As uncomfortable as it is, what makes it tolerable is the knowledge that in a couple of months the brutal heat will have left us and a… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (April 2017)

Letter to Investors Perhaps you’ve heard it or felt it, but fear of financial market decline has become palpable among the public.  It’s not just fear as reflected by TV shows or internet social media I’m talking about, but fear reflected by real people in conversation.  I travel rather extensively, speaking to both advisors and… Read More »

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