Keller Quarterly

Keller Quarterly (October 2018)

Letter to Investors Here we are just a little more than three-quarters of the way through 2018.  While many might regard this as a rather unusual year for the stock market, it really hasn’t been all that unusual.  This is true even though the market is now experiencing its second downturn of greater than 5%… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (July 2018)

Letter to Investors The “choppiness” of the stock market, of which we wrote last quarter, continues.  Even though the U.S. stock market, as represented by the S&P 500, has been working its way upward since early April, it still stands 2.6% below its high for this year (reached on January 26th).  As we noted last… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (April 2018)

Letter to Investors As you well know, the U.S. stock market has been selling off for about ten weeks now.  From some of the calls I’ve been getting, one would expect that another Great Crash is upon us.  There is little evidence to suggest, however, that this is anything more than a normal correction in… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (January 2018)

Letter to Investors Welcome to 2018!  The stock and bond markets did much better in 2017 than most participants expected, by my reckoning.  This has led to an unusually large proportion of the forecasts for this year predicting dire outcomes, also by my reckoning.  Predicting the future is impossible, of course, but that doesn’t stop… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (October 2017)

Letter to Investors In my last letter I wrote of the tendency of investors to think of the economy and the markets as linear phenomena, rather than cyclical phenomena.  In other words, an inclination to think that a good economy will continue its upward path forever unless some villain intercedes and causes a recession.  However,… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (July 2017)

Letter to Investors It’s terribly hot here in the Midwest.  It wouldn’t be a normal Missouri summer if it didn’t touch 100 degrees for a week or two.  As uncomfortable as it is, what makes it tolerable is the knowledge that in a couple of months the brutal heat will have left us and a… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (April 2017)

Letter to Investors Perhaps you’ve heard it or felt it, but fear of financial market decline has become palpable among the public.  It’s not just fear as reflected by TV shows or internet social media I’m talking about, but fear reflected by real people in conversation.  I travel rather extensively, speaking to both advisors and… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (January 2017)

Letter to Investors 2016 was full of surprises, and we expect that 2017 will be just as surprising. As we discussed in last quarter’s letter, the job of an investment manager is to navigate the world that is, not the world that we would like to have. Thus, rather than try to correctly predict what… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (October 2016)

Letter to Investors In our July letter we wrote about the “is-ought problem,” the tendency to confuse the world we have with the world we wish we had.  As we noted then, this problem represents a major danger around election time for investors (and others).  The danger is that investors may be so consumed with… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (July 2016)

Letter to Investors In my travels around the country this year, meeting with clients and advisors, I’ve been struck by the high level of political passion (both optimistic and pessimistic), similar to what we see both in the political arena and in the media. Inevitably, I’m asked what I think about it all. “Who do… Read More »

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