Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Russia’s Local Elections (July 15, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Although Russia hasn’t been in the Western news very much recently, there’s been plenty of action “under the radar” related to the country’s regional and municipal elections this fall. On September 8, governors will be elected in 16 of the country’s 85 regions, including the important city of St. Petersburg.  Legislative… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 24, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Independence Day holiday and a short summer hiatus, the next report will be published July 15.) As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – War with Iran? (June 17, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Over the past year, U.S. relations with Iran have deteriorated.  In May 2018, President Trump announced he would withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a multinational treaty that was designed to slow, but not eliminate, Iran’s nuclear development.  As part of exiting the JCPOA, the U.S. reapplied sanctions that have… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Tiananmen (June 10, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Thirty years ago, on June 4, troops from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) descended upon Tiananmen Square to forcibly remove protestors who had been using the space for about two months.  The protestors were agitating for democracy, an end to corruption and a more inclusive political system. Details of the incident remain unsettled. … Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rare Earths (June 3, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady (NB: To improve readability, we are now linking references to media reports and articles directly in the text via hyperlinks. Footnoting will be reserved for documents to which we can’t link or to provide additional clarity on a topic.) Since early May, the trade tensions with China have morphed into a broader conflict. … Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Venezuela: An Update, Part II (May 20, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady (N.B.  Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the next issue will be published June 3.) In Part I of this report, we provided readers with a short history of Venezuela to bring some context to the current situation.  This week, Part II, will examine the attempts by the opposition to oust Maduro, the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Venezuela: An Update, Part I (May 13, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady On May 10, 2018, Nicolas Maduro was reelected as president of Venezuela.  However, there were numerous irregularities during the vote and, as such, the U.S. and the Organization of American States (OAS) refused to view the election as legitimate.  Shortly after Maduro was officially inaugurated on January 10, 2019, the National Assembly, which… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Domestic Policy and American Hegemony: Part III (May 6, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Part I of this report was a review of the reserve currency and the savings identity.  In Part II, we showed how the Nixon and Reagan administrations used America’s hegemonic power to force some of the economic adjustment of U.S. policy onto foreign governments.  This week, in the final segment of this report,… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Domestic Policy and American Hegemony: Part II (April 29, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Two weeks ago, we introduced this report with a review of the basics of the reserve currency and the savings identity.  This week, we will examine two important historical analogs, the Nixon and Reagan administrations. #1: The Nixon Analog As President Nixon prepared for the 1972 presidential campaign, he faced a number of… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Domestic Policy and American Hegemony: Part I (April 15, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Easter holiday, our next report will be published April 29.) The dollar is the world’s reserve currency.  As such, there is a constant demand for dollars from foreign countries to provide liquidity for global transactions.  Because of the reserve currency status, U.S. monetary and fiscal policy affects the world economy… Read More »

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