Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The US Presidential Election: Foreign Policy Implications (October 7, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA and Thomas Wash | PDF History shows that, despite the promises made as candidates, United States presidents display remarkable foreign policy consistency from one administration to the next. While often distinguishing themselves in the realm of domestic policy, the imperatives of national security tend to force the hands of presidents into… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Eight Megatrends Every Investor Should Know (September 23, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF One of the defining characteristics of our investment strategy work here at Confluence is that we pay close attention to big, global trends in geopolitics, economics and trade, demographics, technology, and even social and political developments. We then try to determine how to incorporate those trends into our strategies,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Prospects for the Dollar in a Fracturing World (September 9, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As investment managers and strategists, we are often asked by clients about our outlook for the United States dollar. Very often, our clients have heard some worrisome news about a rival currency becoming more attractive than the greenback or global investors selling off the dollar because of economic or… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Recent Iranian Election: Results & Implications (August 19, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF The Iranian political landscape experienced a major earthquake on May 19, when the country’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash on his return from a visit to neighboring Azerbaijan. Consequently, in June and July, Iran conducted a two-round presidential election with a surprising result. In a country… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The US Geopolitical and Economic Bloc as an Investment Region (August 5, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF More than a decade ago, we at Confluence began describing how United States voters have become more reluctant to shoulder the costs of global hegemony. We’ve shown how increased populist isolationism in the US and other Western nations helped embolden Chinese General Secretary Xi, Russian President Putin, and other… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President of the Philippines (July 22, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF Seven short weeks ago, we published a report on the brewing tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, focusing on their dispute over the Second Thomas Shoal. Despite the tight time interval since that report, the brisk pace of continuing developments in the area and… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU Parliamentary Elections: New Strength for the Right (July 1, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In early June, voters across Europe cast ballots for their representatives to the European Parliament, an institution likely unfamiliar to most Americans. Even among the few who may know of it, we suspect many don’t really understand it or other top European Union institutions. In this report, we offer… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Uncertainty Reigns (June 17, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Thomas Wash, Daniel Ortwerth, CFA, and Bill O-Grady | PDF As the first half draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Philippines, China & Escalation in the South China Sea (June 3, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF On the short list of seemingly constant topics in the news today is the rising tension between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Across the spectrum of issues, disagreement between these two great powers seems increasingly unavoidable. Geopolitical developments in every corner of the globe often… Read More »