Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Political Crises for Top U.S. Allies (August 1, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF It’s been a hot summer for some of the United States’ key allies, and we don’t just mean the weather.  We’ve seen a major political assassination in Japan, the scandal-driven ouster of a prime minister in the United Kingdom, and a failed vote of confidence that led to the… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Pandemic’s Impact on Inequality (July 18, 2022)

by Natalia Fields | PDF During the global coronavirus pandemic that exploded globally in 2020, perhaps the most notable economic development was the effort by governments around the world to stop the spread of infections through lockdowns, while simultaneously trying to support incomes and economic activity via loose fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies. Importantly, the… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2022 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 21, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (N.B. Due to the Fourth of July holiday, our next geopolitical report will be published on July 18.) As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close.  This report is less a… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mineral Commodities in the World’s New Geopolitical Blocs (June 6, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF For many years, we’ve discussed how the United States has been backing away from its historical role as global hegemon, setting the stage for deglobalization and a fracturing of the world into separate geopolitical and economic blocs.  In our Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report from May 9, 2022, we provided a… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Going Nuclear with North Korea (May 23, 2022)

by Thomas Wash | PDF At nearly 5,000 nuclear warheads, Ukraine had one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world on its territory. If Ukraine hadn’t transferred those weapons to Russia in 1996, it is unlikely that Moscow would have invaded. North Korea believes it is facing a similar threat which is why it… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Parsing the World’s New Geopolitical Blocs (May 9, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF For more than a decade, we at Confluence have been tracking and writing about the waning commitment of the U.S. to its role as global hegemon.  We’ve shown how U.S. retrenchment and protectionism have helped erode globalization.  Factors like deregulation, falling transportation costs, improved technology, and easing geopolitical tensions… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Russians Respond (April 25, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF In mid-March, we wrote a report detailing the effects of financial sanctions on Russia.  And now, about six weeks later, we are seeing the response from Russia.  As we noted in our earlier report, Western sanctions on Russia were extensive.  Although something similar was deployed against Iran, never before had… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Bosnian Divide (April 11, 2022)

by Thomas Wash | PDF It took just two shots from Gavrilo Princip to change the world. That day in Sarajevo marked the end of the Habsburg dynasty, ignited the first of two intercontinental wars, and laid the groundwork for the present-day global order. Gavrilo, a Bosnian Serb, thought he would pave the way for… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New Era of Higher Defense Budgets (March 28, 2022)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF The Russia-Ukraine war has transformed the world in the blink of an eye.  We think the war and its aftermath will reverse much of the economic globalization of recent decades and cleave the world into two or more blocs with only limited interplay.  We believe sanctions on Russia will… Read More »

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