Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Modern Monetary Theory: Part II (March 18, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this four-part series, we introduced this report and discussed the origin narratives of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).  This week, we will examine the principles and consequences of the theory. Principles of MMT[1] MMT begins its analysis with a focus on macroeconomic identities and flows.[2]  The theory states that the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Modern Monetary Theory: Part I (March 11, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In recent weeks, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has become a hot topic of discussion.  Given the level of controversy, we want to provide our take on the theory.  One could wonder if this topic is appropriate for a geopolitical report.  We are using this report to examine MMT because, in our opinion, its… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Irish Question: Part II (March 4, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Last week, we examined the geopolitics of Britain and offered an abbreviated history of Irish/British relations.  This week, we will begin by analyzing the Good Friday Agreement, followed by an analysis of Brexit regarding the Irish question.  As always, we will conclude with market ramifications. The Good Friday Agreement By the late 1990s,… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Irish Question: Part I (February 25, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady As the United Kingdom continues on its path to withdraw from the European Union, a key element that needs to be considered is the border issue in Ireland.  The Northern Ireland/Ireland frontier is the only border that would be directly affected by Brexit.  The rest of the U.K. is an island, although border… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Nigerian Election (February 11, 2019)

by Thomas Wash (N.B. Due to the President’s Day holiday, the next report will be published February 25.) On February 16, 2019, Nigeria will hold its sixth presidential election since it ended military rule in 1999. President Muhammadu Buhari, who has been rumored to be in bad health after disappearing from public view for weeks at… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – What to do with China: Part II (February 4, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we laid out the two narratives that the U.S. and China are using to frame relations between the two countries.  This week, we will summarize the two positions and examine the potential for war using the historical examples of British policy toward the U.S. and Germany, offering… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – What to do with China: Part I (January 28, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Graham Allison published a controversial book in 2017 in which he argued that the probability for a major war increases when an established hegemon faces an emerging power that threatens the hegemon’s position.  He used Thucydides, the Greek historian who wrote a history of the war between Sparta and Athens, as his model… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Inflections: Part II (January 14, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the next issue of this report will be published on January 28.) In Part I of this report, we discussed the issues surrounding predicting inflection points, which are defined as reversals of long-term trends.  In this week’s issue, we will examine two long-term trends that… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Inflections: Part I (January 7, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady History seems to move in broad cycles.  Beliefs come into and fall out of favor.  Despite evidence of these cycles, people tend to “forecast with a straight edge.”  In other words, we assume trends that are in place will remain in place forever.  And, thus, it can come as a shock to society… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2019 Geopolitical Outlook (December 17, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady (N.B.  This will be the last WGR of 2018.  Our next report will be published January 7, 2019.) As is our custom, we close out the current year with our geopolitical outlook for the next one.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues… Read More »

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