Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Uncertainty Reigns (June 17, 2024)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Thomas Wash, Daniel Ortwerth, CFA, and Bill O-Grady | PDF As the first half draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Philippines, China & Escalation in the South China Sea (June 3, 2024)

by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF On the short list of seemingly constant topics in the news today is the rising tension between the United States and the People’s Republic of China.  Across the spectrum of issues, disagreement between these two great powers seems increasingly unavoidable.  Geopolitical developments in every corner of the globe often… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Great COVID Labor Reform (May 20, 2024)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 is now starting to fade from memory. Four years after the sudden outbreak of the disease sparked mass economic shutdowns, mask wearing, and millions of deaths, it’s tempting to think the crisis is becoming just another episode of history. However, the pandemic clearly led… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Middle East: Land of Fault Lines (May 6, 2024)

by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF Conflict in the Middle East is one of the most persistent themes in current events.  Not only is this true today, but Middle Eastern discord has dominated the news flow throughout most of our lives.  At Confluence, we recognize that this enduring pattern of strife reveals the presence of… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Changing Face of War (April 22, 2024)

by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF If the United States were at war with another great power, would we know it?  How would we know it?  These questions might seem absurd but consider that the US has not fought a war against a major world power since 1945.  Meanwhile, when the US has engaged in… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Is Japan Back? (April 8, 2024)

by Thomas Wash | PDF In the early 1960s, futurologist Herman Kahn boldly predicted Japan’s economic dominance. He envisioned the nation surpassing the United States in per-capita economic output by 1990 and matching its total economic output a decade later. Kahn’s vision seemed imminent, fueled by Japan’s rise as a major exporter of autos and… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Venezuela Threatens Guyana (March 25, 2024)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Even though “Great Power” competition between big countries like the United States and China is once again the main source of tension in international affairs, smaller-scale tensions and conflicts involving regional powers still have the potential to disrupt key supply chains and escalate into broader wars.  One such potential… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rebirth of US Nuclear Deterrence (March 11, 2024)

by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Fifteen years ago, a revolution in United States national security policy began very quietly.  It occurred within a subject we have recently addressed in this forum and that is re-emerging as a hot topic of discussion in national security circles after a long hiatus: deterrence,… Read More »

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Posen vs. Pettis (February 26, 2024)

by Bill O’Grady | PDF Michael Pettis is a professor of finance at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University in Beijing and a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  He is a well-known analyst of China’s economy and financial system.  Adam Posen is currently the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. … Read More »

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