Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: Part II (August 19, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I In Part I, we began our analysis with a discussion of Mundell’s Impossible Trinity.  We also covered the gold standard model and Bretton Woods model.  This week, we will examine the Treasury/dollar standard and introduce what could be called Bretton Woods II.  Finally, we will conclude with… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I (August 12, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Weaponizing the Dollar: Part I In July 1944, 44 allied nations gathered at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, NH to develop the structure for the economic and financial systems for the postwar world.  The Bretton Woods agreement established a system of fixed exchange rates.  Exchange rates were pegged to the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Turkey Lashing Out (August 5, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here at Confluence, we write a lot about the rise and fall of hegemonic states – those great nations that develop enough power and influence to dominate the global economy, or at least some region of it.  These superpowers use their extraordinary military might and other levers to impose order on… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economic Triangle: Part II (July 29, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady The Economic Triangle: Part II  Last week, we referenced the basic philosophies of David Hume and Adam Smith and how their writings evolved into the economic theory of supply and demand.  From there, we examined the weakness of supply and demand at the macro level and discussed an alternative model, the Economic… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economic Triangle: Part I (July 22, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In mid-August 2016, I published a two-part series titled “Thinking about Thinking” (see Part I and II).  Occasionally, I will be asked which WGR is my favorite or most important.  I generally refer readers to the aforementioned reports. One facet of that report is the three statements of knowledge—a priori analytic statements, a… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Russia’s Local Elections (July 15, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Although Russia hasn’t been in the Western news very much recently, there’s been plenty of action “under the radar” related to the country’s regional and municipal elections this fall. On September 8, governors will be elected in 16 of the country’s 85 regions, including the important city of St. Petersburg.  Legislative… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 24, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Independence Day holiday and a short summer hiatus, the next report will be published July 15.) As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – War with Iran? (June 17, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Over the past year, U.S. relations with Iran have deteriorated.  In May 2018, President Trump announced he would withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a multinational treaty that was designed to slow, but not eliminate, Iran’s nuclear development.  As part of exiting the JCPOA, the U.S. reapplied sanctions that have… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Tiananmen (June 10, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady Thirty years ago, on June 4, troops from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) descended upon Tiananmen Square to forcibly remove protestors who had been using the space for about two months.  The protestors were agitating for democracy, an end to corruption and a more inclusive political system. Details of the incident remain unsettled. … Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rare Earths (June 3, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady (NB: To improve readability, we are now linking references to media reports and articles directly in the text via hyperlinks. Footnoting will be reserved for documents to which we can’t link or to provide additional clarity on a topic.) Since early May, the trade tensions with China have morphed into a broader conflict. … Read More »

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