Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – After Soleimani (January 13, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, our next report will be published on January 27.) On January 3rd, the U.S. launched a missile strike that killed Major General Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  As a high-profile commander, his death… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2020 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (This is the last report for 2019; the next report will be published January 13, 2020.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ukraine Under Zelensky (December 9, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Because of the congressional impeachment inquiry into President Trump, people are hearing a lot about Ukraine and its new president, Volodymyr Zelensky.  However, it’s important to remember that Ukraine and its new leader are significant in their own right.  Russia has been keeping Ukraine under intense geopolitical pressure for the last… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Lebanon and its “Revolution of the Millennials” (December 2, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Working at NATO Headquarters in Brussels in the 1990s was a diverse experience: my coworker was Belgian, my boss was British, his boss was French and our secretary was Turkish.  But what felt especially exotic were my weekends in eastern Belgium, on the Dutch border, with my Turkish, Egyptian and Lebanese… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thirty Years Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall: A Retrospective, Part II (November 18, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on Dec. 2.) In Part I of this report, we presented the first two of four ideas about the post-Cold War era and how well they fared.  This week, we will cover the remaining two ideas and conclude with market ramifications.… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thirty Years Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall: A Retrospective, Part I (November 11, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady On August 13, 1961, the German Democratic Republic (GDR), otherwise known as East Germany, began construction on a barrier that would slow the emigration of Germans to the Federal Republic of Germany, known as West Germany.  Prior to the construction of the wall, it is estimated that 3.5 million East Germans emigrated… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Japan: Will the Tax Hike Bite? Part II (November 4, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Some of Japan’s biggest economic hiccups have started with a major tax hike, so investors are wondering what will happen following a boost in the country’s value-added tax (a type of sales tax) that went into effect early last month.  To lay the groundwork for understanding the VAT hike and its… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Japan: Will the Tax Hike Bite? Part I (October 28, 2019)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Even though Japan has one of the world’s largest economies and accounts for a hefty share of global stock market capitalization, it isn’t getting nearly as much attention from investors as it did during its boom years in the 1970s and 1980s.  In part, that’s because Japan’s economic growth has become… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part II (October 21, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we identified the need to stabilize three areas of the world prone to war in order to maintain global peace.  We focused on the Middle East and discussed the development of the Carter Doctrine, examining how the doctrine has been enforced since its inception.  In this… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part I (October 14, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In our 2018 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook we opened the report with an analysis of America’s evolving hegemony.  We noted that America’s hegemonic narrative centered on containing communism.  This factor united Americans to accept the burden of the superpower role.  However, embedded in that commitment to contain communism was the “freezing” of three… Read More »

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