Asset Allocation Reports

Weekly Energy Update (January 13, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies.  We are approaching the highs set in November. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 4.6 mb compared to a 1.7 mb draw forecast.  The SPR declined 0.3 mb, meaning… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Path of Monetary Policy (January 10, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our expectation of no policy rate hikes this year is an out-of-consensus call in our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.  There are a couple of factors that suggest rate hikes this year.  First, financial markets have factored in rate hikes.  Fed funds futures suggest a greater… Read More »

Weekly Energy Update (January 6, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since troughing in early December, oil prices have been steadily rising due to tightening supplies. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 2.1 mb compared to a 3.4 mb draw forecast.  The SPR declined 1.3 mb, meaning the net draw was 3.5 mb. In the… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – What’s Causing the Yield Curve to Flatten? (December 17, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF A note to readers: The Asset Allocation Weekly will go on holiday hiatus following today’s report and return as a bi-weekly publication, now on Mondays, beginning January 10, 2022.  From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, we wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!  See… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – The Omicron Problem (December 10, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Over the Thanksgiving holiday, news broke that a new variant of COVID-19 had been isolated in South Africa.  This new variant has an usually high number of mutations, which increases the likelihood that current immunity will be compromised.  In other words, prior infection or inoculation will probably be… Read More »

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