Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – China Cuts Its Energy Imports (June 15, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As we’ve noted before, the most immediate economic and financial market risk from the Iran war is the possibility of further price hikes for oil, natural gas, and some other commodities that depend heavily on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Because of the war, the strait has now… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The UAE’s Exit From OPEC (June 1, 2026)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On May 1, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) formally exited both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ grouping of major oil producers. Such exits are not unheard of. For example, Indonesia suspended its membership in OPEC in 2015. However, Indonesia left the cartel not… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Power of Gold (May 11, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since the Iran war began on February 28, several corners of the financial market have behaved in unusual and unexpected ways, with gold prices being perhaps the most surprising. Gold has been a safe-haven asset for centuries, and investors have come to expect its value to rise in times… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2026)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Recession likelihood is low over our three-year forecast period. Base case expects GDP growth near historical trend, with elevated tail risks widening the range of outcomes. Higher energy prices are likely to keep inflation elevated for longer. The Middle East conflict encourages overweights to energy, industrials, defense stocks,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Consensus Builder (April 27, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF You never really appreciate a good thing until it’s gone. May 15 will be the final day in office for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, one of the most effective consensus builders in Fed history. Despite an extraordinary series of shocks during his tenure — from the 2019 repo market… Read More »