Research & News
Daily Comment (November 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment data day! We cover the release in detail below but the quick read is that the report is relatively weak; payrolls rebounded sharply but below expectations, the unemployment rate fell largely due to a drop in the labor force and wages remained unchanged. Weather… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The overnight news was relatively light, but here are the events we’re keeping an eye on today: Changes at the Fed: Yesterday, the FOMC decided to maintain interest rates at their current levels but hinted at a possible rate increase in December. The Federal Reserve cited… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets have been fairly strong following relatively strong earnings and expectations surrounding the FOMC meeting today. The overnight news was relatively light, but below are a few topics that we are keeping an eye on today: Return of the ban? Yesterday, a driver in a… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Halloween! Financial and commodity markets are quiet this morning, awaiting the president’s pick for Fed chair (Powell is the consensus selection), the president’s trip to Asia and Friday’s employment report. Here is what we are watching this morning: The indictments: Although the indictments dominated the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part III (October 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of our report, we reviewed the Minsaengdan Incident and a broad examination of the Korean War. In Part II, we completed our analysis of the war, discussed the Kim regime’s autarkic policy of Juche and outlined the impact of the Cultural Revolution on North Korean/Chinese relations. This week, Part III… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a heavy weekend of news. Let’s dig in: Manafort, Gates indicted: Paul Manafort and his former business associate, Rick Gates, were indicted this morning and told to surrender to the FBI. Latest reports indicate that Manafort and his former partner will face charges related… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 27, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee It is expected that over the next two weeks President Trump is going to appoint a new Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) chair and vice chair. In this report, we will build scenarios of how policy could change depending upon whom the president appoints. This spreadsheet details our estimate of policy… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As we detail below, Q3 GDP came in stronger than forecast. And, yesterday’s spate of tech company earnings were quite solid. Equities and the dollar continue to rally and interest rates are grinding higher. Here is what we are watching: A budget passes the House: As… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a news-heavy morning. Here is what we are tracking: Yellen out? Politico is reporting that the president has narrowed the field for Fed chair, eliminating Gary Cohn yesterday and also Yellen. Although the source from Politico, Ben White, is generally reliable, in the same report,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are a bit weaker this morning—equities are signaling a softer opening while Treasuries are continuing to take on water. There is a lot going on; this morning we are focused on the following issues. Xi sets Standing Committee: The new Standing Committee of the… Read More »