Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the Khashoggi Incident: Part II (November 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on November 26.) Last week, we discussed the issue of succession in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). In Part II, we will begin with a discussion of the regional power rivalry between Turkey and the KSA, then outline Turkish President… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Monday and a bank holiday. Since Veteran’s Day fell on a weekend, the banking system is partially closed today, which means the cash Treasury market is closed. This is what we are watching this morning: OPEC and oil: President Trump has been critical of OPEC… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 9, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In light of rising interest rates, this week we will take a look at credit spreads. But, before doing that, it makes sense to examine overall Treasury valuation. This chart is our 10-year T-note model. It incorporates fed funds, the Japanese yen exchange rate, German sovereign 10-year yields, oil prices, the fiscal… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Friday, just not a very happy one. The market tone is definitely risk-off. Today’s weakness is mostly made in China but there are other concerns as well. Here is what we are watching: China: The inflation data (see below) was mostly in line with expectations. … Read More »
Daily Comment (November 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed day! The FOMC meets today but it is one of those meetings without new forecasts (“dots”) or a press conference. Thus, we are expecting no change in rates or in the statement. We are seeing some consolidation in equities this morning after a strong… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Wednesday! No more political ads on TV! Here is what we are watching this morning: Election takeaways: The midterms came out about as expected, with the House going to the Democrats and the GOP expanding its hold on the Senate. Although, in the end, things… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a very quiet overnight session. Media attention is focused on the midterms. Here is what we are watching this morning: Midterms: We have already discussed the election at length. Here is our simple guide. The consensus outcome is a Democratic House and a Republican… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the Khashoggi Incident: Part I (November 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Jamal Khashoggi, a well-connected Saudi journalist, entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2nd and has not been seen since. His apparent death (at the time of this writing, no body has been produced) has caused an international incident. The assumed death of Khashoggi highlights a number of issues for the Middle… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are mixed this morning on the eve of a big week. Midterm elections are tomorrow (don’t know about you, but we won’t miss the political ads), and the FOMC ends its meeting on Thursday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Elections: The… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 2, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In light of the recent pullback in equities, there has been rising speculation that the FOMC might not increase rates as much as projected. Although possible, we are not seeing much evidence to support this position. This chart shows the fed funds target along with the implied three-month LIBOR rate, two years… Read More »