Research & News
Daily Comment (November 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Employment Friday! We cover the data in detail below, but the snapshot is that the data was very strong. Payrolls and wages rose well above forecast. Global equities are higher this morning on optimism that the U.S. and China can come to a trade agreement.[1] … Read More »
Daily Comment (November 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities continue to rally, although we note that we have seen some weakness emerge after a rather hawkish statement from the BOE. Here is what we are following this morning: BOE: The Bank of England surprised the markets this morning by indicating the economy is at… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 31, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Halloween! It’s mid-week and equity markets around the world are lifting this morning. It looks to us like a normal bounce from a correction. Will it have legs? Probably. Our position is that this drop was mostly a normal correction but not the start of… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] What’s wrong with the market? Yesterday’s equity market action was quite disappointing. After a strong opening, prices steadily declined then slumped into the close. There appeared to be two catalysts. First, the Commerce Department announced it was going to restrict exports to a Chinese chip… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Return of the Strongman: Part II (October 29, 2018)
by Thomas Wash The populist wave has officially made its way to Brazil. In a blow to the establishment, Brazilian voters have elected former military officer Jair Bolsonaro as president. As Brazil continues to struggle with its recovery from the country’s worst recession in its history, the public has turned its back on the mainstream political… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets in the U.S. are rebounding this morning as investors begin to edge back into the market after a hard decline. Here is what we are watching this morning: German elections and Merkel: On Sunday, the German state of Hesse held local elections. Although local… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 26, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the earliest lessons taught in statistics is that “correlation does not equal causality.” Any relationship that exists between two variables usually rests on a myriad of conditions; if any of these conditions change, correlations can break down rapidly. This doesn’t mean that correlation isn’t a useful tool but it show… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Friday and equities are taking on water again this morning. Today’s weakness is due to disappointing earnings from two tech giants, Amazon[1] (AMZN, 1782.17), which is down 7.7% in pre-market trading, and Alphabet[2] (GOOGL, 1103.59), down 4.2% in the pre-market. We cover Q3 GDP in… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the fourth day of what has been a tough week. Yesterday’s equity market sell-off was clearly a shocker. Although there is other news this morning, including the ECB meeting, we start today with thoughts about equities: Equity thoughts: Two weeks ago, in the Asset Allocation… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s mid-week and equity markets are trying to find their footing. Yesterday’s action almost qualified for what a former boss of mine would call a “Hollywood finish.” That’s one where the market takes a beating in the early part of the day only to recover to… Read More »