Research & News
Daily Comment (December 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On Friday, December 14, we published our 2019 Outlook: Red Sky at Morning report. If you missed it, you can find the report linked here or on our website. The big event this week is the FOMC meeting that ends on Wednesday. Equity markets continue to… Read More »
2019 Outlook: Red Sky at Morning (December 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller |PDF Summary: Economy grows at 2.7%. Expansion makes a new duration record; no recession expected in 2019, although the risk of a downturn will be increasing. Core inflation max is 2.5% next year. Dollar weakens, although the direction is mostly dependent on administration trade policy. We expect preparations for… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 14, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets have come under pressure this autumn. The weakness has gained momentum in recent weeks. This chart shows the yearly change in the S&P 500 Index on a monthly average basis. We have added recession shading; in general, recessions tend to trigger bear market declines of 20% or more. In fact,… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-off Friday; global equity markets are slumping, economic data from China and Europe looked weak and PM May got rebuffed by EU leaders. As noted, equities are lower, the dollar is up and Treasury yields are down. Here are the details: Global data: In… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets are mixed this morning with the pattern of fading overnight equity futures rallies continuing. Here is what we are watching: ECB: The ECB is meeting today and has released a statement indicating that QE is ending[1] but the balance sheet will be maintained for… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets are higher again this morning after fading the strong opening yesterday. A bail decision and, interestingly enough, a no-confidence vote appear to be the catalysts. There is a lot of news this morning. Here is what we are watching: Meng gets bail: In the… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 11, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On the second day of the week, risk markets are rising. Trade hopes seem to be part of the reason for the increase as U.S. and Chinese negotiators are planning meetings and setting timelines.[1] It looks like the Meng arrest won’t derail trade talks. There is… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Malevolent Hegemon: Part III (December 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady This week, we conclude our series by describing what we view as a new model for the superpower role, the Malevolent Hegemon. We will discuss the differences between this model and the previous one. With this analysis in place, we will examine the potential outcomes from this shift and conclude with potential market… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Monday, Monday…global equity markets have been coming under pressure but U.S. equity futures have recovered in the past hour. It looks like pessimism has become excessive and maybe a rebound is in the offing. Here is what we are watching: Equities remain jittery: Friday’s equity market… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 7, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The election of Donald Trump has been characterized as part of a populist uprising. In the president’s inaugural address, he talked about the “forgotten” that would have a voice in his administration. At the same time, we work under John Mitchell’s dictum of “watch what we do, not what we say.”[1] In… Read More »