Research & News
Daily Comment (November 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed day! The FOMC meets today but it is one of those meetings without new forecasts (“dots”) or a press conference. Thus, we are expecting no change in rates or in the statement. We are seeing some consolidation in equities this morning after a strong… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Wednesday! No more political ads on TV! Here is what we are watching this morning: Election takeaways: The midterms came out about as expected, with the House going to the Democrats and the GOP expanding its hold on the Senate. Although, in the end, things… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a very quiet overnight session. Media attention is focused on the midterms. Here is what we are watching this morning: Midterms: We have already discussed the election at length. Here is our simple guide. The consensus outcome is a Democratic House and a Republican… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the Khashoggi Incident: Part I (November 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Jamal Khashoggi, a well-connected Saudi journalist, entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2nd and has not been seen since. His apparent death (at the time of this writing, no body has been produced) has caused an international incident. The assumed death of Khashoggi highlights a number of issues for the Middle… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are mixed this morning on the eve of a big week. Midterm elections are tomorrow (don’t know about you, but we won’t miss the political ads), and the FOMC ends its meeting on Thursday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Elections: The… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 2, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In light of the recent pullback in equities, there has been rising speculation that the FOMC might not increase rates as much as projected. Although possible, we are not seeing much evidence to support this position. This chart shows the fed funds target along with the implied three-month LIBOR rate, two years… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Employment Friday! We cover the data in detail below, but the snapshot is that the data was very strong. Payrolls and wages rose well above forecast. Global equities are higher this morning on optimism that the U.S. and China can come to a trade agreement.[1] … Read More »
Daily Comment (November 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities continue to rally, although we note that we have seen some weakness emerge after a rather hawkish statement from the BOE. Here is what we are following this morning: BOE: The Bank of England surprised the markets this morning by indicating the economy is at… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 31, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Halloween! It’s mid-week and equity markets around the world are lifting this morning. It looks to us like a normal bounce from a correction. Will it have legs? Probably. Our position is that this drop was mostly a normal correction but not the start of… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] What’s wrong with the market? Yesterday’s equity market action was quite disappointing. After a strong opening, prices steadily declined then slumped into the close. There appeared to be two catalysts. First, the Commerce Department announced it was going to restrict exports to a Chinese chip… Read More »