Weekly Geopolitical Report – The U.S.-China “Phase One” Trade Deal: Part II (February 3, 2020)

by Bill O’Grady

In Part I of this report, we offered a detailed examination of “Phase One” of the recent trade agreement between the U.S. and China.  This week, in Part II, we will examine the ramifications of the deal and conclude the report with market effects.

China appears to be the “loser” in this deal.  Our careful reading of the report does support the notion that China gave up more than it got in this arrangement.  All leaders of governments try to avoid looking weak; Chinese leaders especially worry about appearing fragile to avoid comparisons to the Opium War era.  So, if this take is accurate, what led to this outcome?

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