by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF
(N.B. Due to the Fourth of July holiday, our next geopolitical report will be published on July 18.)
As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year. It is not designed to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we believe will affect policy and markets going forward. They are listed in order of importance.
Issue #1: The Russia-Ukraine War
Issue #2: Xi as China’s President for Life
Issue #3: The Global Food Crisis
Issue #4: Weather Disruptions
Issue #5: Latin American Politics
Issue #6: The U.S. Midterms
Issue #7: Fed Policy and the Dollar
Quick Hits: This section is a roundup of geopolitical issues we are watching that haven’t risen to the level of the concerns described above but should be monitored.