Tag: Russia
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – NATO’s Baltic Vulnerability: Implications for Europe (June 9, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF
When Sweden and Finland finally joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 2024, the alliance gained important new territory and military capabilities on its northeastern flank. However, the expansion hasn’t necessarily been enough to fully deter potential Russian aggression against NATO in that theater. Indeed, NATO’s expansion has prompted Russia to increase its military resources there. Northeastern Europe and the Baltic Sea remain an important potential flashpoint for conflict between the West and Russia. In this report, we show how NATO remains vulnerable to Russian threats in the northeast. Against the backdrop of President Trump trying to reduce the United States’ role in European defense, we also examine how the Russian threat is prompting shifts in Europe’s defense and economic policy. We wrap up with a discussion of the resulting investment implications.
Note: The accompanying podcast for this report will be delayed until later this week.
Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Growing Fragility in the US Bloc (April 7, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF
We at Confluence have written extensively on the end of post-Cold War globalization and the fracturing of the world into various geopolitical and economic blocs. We’ve noted that the large, rich bloc led by the United States is an attractive place for investors, but fractured supply chains and rising international tensions may produce a range of economic and financial market problems, from elevated consumer price inflation to higher and more volatile interest rates. In this report, we explore what could happen to the US bloc as President Trump pursues his aggressive policies to push the costs of Western security and prosperity onto the US’s traditional allies. As we’ve noted before, those policies run the risk of reducing US influence with its allies and undermining cohesion within the US bloc. We assess in this report that reduced cohesion probably won’t splinter the US bloc in the near term. Nevertheless, we begin laying out how the world could change if the US bloc does disintegrate, and we discuss the economic and market implications if it does.
Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Podcast – #64 “Growing Fragility in the US Bloc” (Posted 4/7/25)
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Podcast – #57 “Implications of North Korean Soldiers in the Ukraine War” (Posted 11/18/24)
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of North Korean Soldiers in the Ukraine War (November 18, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF
In late October, the world learned that North Korean soldiers had deployed to Russia to assist their allies in the Ukraine war. This dramatically changed the geopolitical profile of the conflict. Allies and partners of both Ukraine and Russia have been providing material and financial support to both countries since virtually the beginning of the war. North Korea itself (formal name Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK) has been contributing large quantities of arms and ammunition to Russia; however, this is the first known instance of another country sending combat troops to join the fight on either side. This precedent-setting action marks a clear escalation and raises the question of how this development might further accelerate the conflict.
This report addresses that question. We begin with a review of the known facts concerning troop numbers, types, locations, etc. We continue with an assessment of the likely impact of DPRK forces on the course and outcome of the Ukraine war and culminate with considerations of how this development might affect the broader geopolitical landscape beyond the conflict. As always, we conclude with investment implications. Since this report addresses a newly emerging and rapidly evolving development, its status may materially change post-publication. We encourage readers to monitor our Daily Comment for emerging updates.
Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Podcast – #49 “Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Uncertainty Reigns” (Posted 6/17/24)
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Uncertainty Reigns (June 17, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Thomas Wash, Daniel Ortwerth, CFA, and Bill O-Grady | PDF
As the first half draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the year. The report is not designed to be exhaustive. Rather, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we think will affect policy and markets going forward. We have subtitled this report “Uncertainty Reigns” to reflect the fact that chaos and unpredictability have become entrenched as the post-Cold War era of globalization gives way to a new period of Great Power competition. Our issues are listed in order of importance.
Issue #1: China – South China Sea
Issue #2: Russia-Ukraine-NATO
Issue #3: Israel-Hamas-Iran
Issue #4: The US Elections
Issue #5: US Defense Rebuilding
Issue #6: Global Monetary Policy