Research & News

Keller Quarterly (January 2016)

Letter to Investors The turning of the annual calendar occasions all sorts of prognostications in our profession.  We prefer not to think in terms of forecasts, but rather in terms of probable scenarios. All sorts of things are possible in 2016, but not all scenarios are equally probable.  For example, a great many purveyors of… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2016 Geopolitical Outlook (December 14, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape in the upcoming year.  It is not designed to be exhaustive;… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Evolution of IS (December 7, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady An Islamic State (IS) affiliate downed Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 in October.  In November, IS-affiliated terrorists launched a series of attacks in Paris.  These two events suggest a significant change in the behavior of IS.  Prior to the Paris attacks, IS appeared to be focused on building a caliphate in Syria and Iraq. … Read More »

2016 Outlook (November 30, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF In this report, we will offer our outlook for the upcoming year.  Twenty-sixteen could be an interesting year—presidential elections will be held, the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy and the geopolitical landscape will likely remain complicated.  We will begin the report with our base case for… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Putin and Flight 9268 (November 23, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady On October 31st, Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 took off from Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, at 5:58 local time en route to St. Petersburg, Russia.  Within 25 minutes, the aircraft, an Airbus A321, disappeared from radar over central Sinai.  By the time radar contact was lost, the aircraft had reached its cruising altitude of 33,000… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (November 18, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady The Market Over the past year, oil prices fell sharply into the first quarter, remained rangebound from January through March, rallied above $60 per barrel in the spring and early summer, and then slid to new lows in August.  Since the August lows, prices have been in a range between the high… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Political Turmoil in Portugal (November 16, 2015)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Portugal held parliamentary elections on October 4, 2015, in which the incumbent center-right Social Democratic Party received the most votes but fell short of an outright majority.  Historically, as part of the Portuguese political process, the country’s president tasks the party that receives the most votes with forming a government.  However, in… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – EU Migrant Crisis: Focus on Hungary (November 2, 2015)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA There is no doubt that the EU migrant crisis is a catastrophe in terms of human costs.  It is fairly evident that the EU was not prepared to deal with the magnitude of migrant movement into the region.  This crisis also presents a political dilemma for Europe and may lead to the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Obama Doctrine: Moneyball America (October 26, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady Over the past three years, we have witnessed what appears to be a steady erosion of American power.  Russia annexed the Crimea and has encouraged a rebellion in eastern Ukraine, undermining the sovereignty of a European nation.  This apparent invasion was considered by Western observers to be the first hostile acquisition of territory… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2015)

The Federal Reserve decided not to raise rates in the third quarter. Attention now turns to if, when and how it will raise rates going forward. Although we expect the Fed to move gradually and not cause a recession, the likelihood of policy errors has increased. We continue to believe both growth and inflation are… Read More »

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