Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Return of the Strongman: Part I (October 22, 2018)
by Thomas Wash On October 7th, Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right populist, made it out of the first round of presidential elections in Brazil in decisive fashion. A controversial figure within his country, Bolsonaro was able to build his popularity on the growing distrust of the government. Rising crime, corruption scandals and a record-breaking recession have led… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! We are seeing a bit of optimism this morning as Chinese equities rallied overnight. There was nothing in the news that was necessarily bullish for China but a constant drumbeat of supportive statements from CPC officials has likely given investors the idea that the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 19, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The accompanying notes to the release of the FOMC minutes on October 17th indicated expectations from a majority of members to eventually push fed fund rates above the level that they would otherwise view as neutral. In the most recent projections, the average of members’ estimates for the neutral level by 2021… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equities are mixed this morning due to concerns about a possible stand-off between the EU and Rome along with slower than expected GDP growth in China. Here are the stories we are following today: Italy budget: In a rebuke to Rome, the European Commission (EC)… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equities fell and Treasury yields rose due to the hawkish tone of the Fed minutes. There was not a lot of overnight news but below are the stories we are following today: EU trade truce on the rocks: The truce between the U.S. and… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2018)
Letter to Investors Here we are just a little more than three-quarters of the way through 2018. While many might regard this as a rather unusual year for the stock market, it really hasn’t been all that unusual. This is true even though the market is now experiencing its second downturn of greater than 5%… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are mixed this morning as strong earnings led to a surge in tech stocks but weaker earnings from automakers due to rising costs are likely weighing on investors. Here are the stories we are following today: Mueller to release key findings: Special Counsel Robert Mueller is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2018)
The U.S. economy is stable and growing, with sentiment indicators remaining high. A recession is not included in our cyclical forecast. The Fed’s tightening policy has thus far had modest effects. We expect a continuation of increases in the fed funds rate in tandem with a reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. Though unemployment is… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities have rebounded this morning due to expectations of strong earnings, and Treasury yields are also trending upward as it appears tensions are easing with Saudi Arabia and China. Below are the stories we will be following throughout the day: Khashoggi death: On Monday, CNN reported… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 15, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The equity sell-off has returned as U.S. tensions with Saudi Arabia and China escalated over the weekend. Growing concerns of market uncertainty have led to a rise in oil prices, gold and Treasuries, as well as a drop in the dollar. Below are the stories we… Read More »