Research & News
Daily Comment (September 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Thursday! Here is what we are watching today: Trade talks back on: Equities are elevated this morning after it was revealed that the U.S. and China are open to restarting trade negotiations. This breakthrough came on the heels of President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are mostly quiet this morning. PPI (discussed below) came in lower than expected. Here are the other items we are watching today: EU pushes back against Hungary: With populists gaining political leverage in the EU, the establishment is fighting back and targeting Viktor Orban,… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 11, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a solemn day, the 17th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Here is what we are watching today: Trade: Talks continue with Canada but reports suggest that dairy remains a major sticking point. China has asked the WTO for authorization to impose trade sanctions against the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Battle for Idlib (September 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Two years ago, it looked as if Syrian President Bashar Assad was either about to be ousted from power or doomed to control an ever-shrinking area of Syria. Islamic State, Kurds and various rebel groups controlled much of what once constituted Syria. In fact, the frontier between Syria and Iraq was mostly a… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! Here is what we are watching today: Trade: There’s nothing new on NAFTA but President Trump increased the threat against China, calling for even more Chinese goods to come under tariff barriers. China is holding a meeting with U.S. financial services executives,[1] perhaps in… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (September 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Since mid-Q1, oil prices have ranged from a low of around $64 to a high of $71 per barrel. Prices remain elevated, supported by OPEC production discipline, production problems in several OPEC nations, fears of new Iran sanctions and stable global oil demand. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 7, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Traditionally, the election season kicks off with Labor Day so, with last Monday’s holiday, the election cycle is upon us. The midterm election year tends to be lackluster for equities until Q4, when a strong rally usually develops. The data for this chart is developed by taking the weekly closes for the… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment Friday. We cover the data in detail below, but the quick take is that labor markets are tightening. Although the unemployment rate rose, both the labor force and underemployment fell. August can have seasonal adjustment issues (it can be difficult to capture school/employment flows)… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] For financial markets, it’s fairly quiet (especially compared to the political turmoil in Washington) with EM still coming under pressure. Here is what we are watching today: New Chinese tariffs? One of the effects of the Woodward book and yesterday’s anonymous editorial is that there appears… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-off day this morning as worries about global trade and emerging market contagion continue to mount. Here is what we are watching this morning: BREAKING: There are reports that Germany is willing to make concessions to the U.K. The GBP jumped on the news. … Read More »