Research & News
Daily Comment (October 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. It’s GDP day! After two brutal down days, mostly driven by worsening infection rates and the lack of fiscal support, equity markets are trying to recover. As expected, GDP had a historic recovery, up 33.1% (q/q% annualized). This… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices remain rangebound but are testing the lower boundary of the range. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4.3 mb when a 1.5 mb build was expected. The SPR declined 0.7 mb; since peaking at 656.1 mb… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 28, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Before turning to the daily news, we want to note that our Asset Allocation Rebalance Chart Book for the fourth quarter is now available on Vimeo. In this video, we review our asset allocation process, detail our quarterly portfolio adjustments,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Before turning to the daily news, we want to mention that our latest Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available here. This edition discusses our outlook for how U.S. foreign policy is likely to develop in the coming years depending… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Election of 1876: Part II (October 26, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Last week, we outlined the history of the presidential election of 1876. This election was disputed and required a special commission to resolve. This week, we will begin with a discussion of our current procedure for electing presidents and the impact of partisanship on the existing environment. We will use… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 26, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s Monday, the last week of October. U.S. equity futures are weaker this morning. A big reason has been a global resurgence of the virus. It leads off our coverage this morning. Next up is international news. In this week’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Friday! U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning. The last presidential debate came and went; it was more orderly than the last one. At this late date, we doubt it will have a significant effect… Read More »