Research & News

Daily Comment (April 5, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing weaker equity markets this morning with little news flow.  The Treasury has announced new inversion rules that will likely discourage some of the merger activity.  The Panama papers are also sowing fear in the financial markets.  However, the most likely reason for the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Archetypes of American Foreign Policy: A Reprise (April 4, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady We are currently experiencing one of the most contentious primary election seasons in at least 35 years.  Candidates have made numerous incendiary statements about foreign policy that offer insights into their thinking.  However, without a paradigm, it can be difficult for investors to determine what foreign policy decisions a candidate is likely… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 4, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There wasn’t too much market news overnight as several Asian markets were closed for holiday.  However, there were several major news splashes from WikiLeaks, one of which published a massive database from the offshore law firm Mossack Fonseca.  A German newspaper, Süddeutsche Zeitung, obtained the data… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (April 1, 2016)

by Asset Allocation Committee In the most recent GDP report, corporate profits plunged. The overall decline in profits was $153 bn in Q4, although some of this drop was due to an $83 bn settlement that BP had with the government over the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill.  We have been noting for some time… Read More »

Daily Comment (April 1, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment day!  We will go into much more detail below, but we are seeing solid improvement in the labor market.  Most importantly, the labor force is finally starting to expand; in fact, the unemployment rate rose this month in a good way as the labor… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 31, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Standard & Poor’s lowered China’s credit rating outlook from stable to negative, citing a slower than expected economic rebalancing.  Although Chinese risk markets dropped initially, they have recovered since, indicating that the rating outlook cut is not likely to have a long-term effect.  We saw similar… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 30, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets surged globally yesterday as Fed Chair Yellen re-confirmed the central bank’s intention to move rates up slowly, citing weak global growth.  This was exactly the kind of reconciliatory signal that the markets were looking for after several FRB presidents had voiced their support for… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 29, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] European markets opened strongly higher after the long Easter holiday, but have given back some of the gains in early morning trading.  Asian equities were mixed, with Chinese markets trading lower. All eyes will be turned to Fed Chairman Yellen’s address to the Economic Club of… Read More »

Daily Comment (March 28, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Trading was quiet overnight.  Hong Kong and European markets are closed for Easter Monday, which limited market activity.  On Good Friday, the Commerce Department issued the GDP report for Q4 (see below).  In addition to our usual coverage, we want to highlight a couple of important… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (March 24, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have fallen steadily over the past year, reaching a new low early in the first quarter just below $30 per barrel.  Since mid-February, they have staged an impressive recovery. Oil Prices and Inventories This rally has occurred despite historic levels of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories.  The chart… Read More »

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