Research & News

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Coup, Part II (August 1, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady Last week, we began a three-part series on the attempted Turkish coup that started on Friday, July 15.  In Part I, we examined Turkey’s history to frame the historical conditions that affected the failed coup.  As promised, this week’s report will discuss the actual coup. The Coup Around 7:30 p.m. Eastern European Standard… Read More »

Daily Comment (August 1, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s global PMI day today.  As we note below, most of the data came in around expectations.  Australia was unusually robust while the U.K. was rather weak.  Overall, the data suggests a global economy that is mostly steady. We had two fed officials speak over the… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (July 29, 2016)

by Asset Allocation Committee In the most recent rebalance of our Asset Allocation portfolios, we maintained an allocation to emerging market equities in the Aggressive Growth portfolio.  As we have noted in the past, there is a positive relationship between the dollar’s exchange rate and the relative performance of developed market equities and emerging market equities.… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 29, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The BOJ disappointed the financial markets.  Expectations for a larger stimulus package, maybe even helicopter money, was hoped for.  Instead, the BOJ offered to boost ETF purchases and indicated it will perform a study of its stimulus programs, hinting perhaps that more could come later… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 28, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC statement was generally as expected.   The committee acknowledged the economy improved from their last meeting.  Labor markets are better and household spending is robust.  On the other hand, business investment remains sluggish.  Overall, the FOMC indicates that “near-term risks to the economic outlook have… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 27, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting concludes today.  Expectations are very low for this meeting although we would not be surprised to see the statement take on a more hawkish tone.  Markets are not expecting the FOMC to move higher this year; in fact, the fed funds futures don’t… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 26, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting begins today and concludes tomorrow.  As we noted yesterday, we expect the Fed to try to inject expectations of potential tightening.  We also expect the FOMC to fail on this goal.  The financial markets are quite sure the Fed won’t move until next… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Coup, Part I (July 25, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady On Friday, July 15, reports out of Turkey indicated that unusual troop activity was underway which suggested a coup was in progress.  In the U.S., as afternoon turned toward early evening, it was abundantly clear that elements of the Turkish security services were attempting to oust President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  As the hours… Read More »

Daily Comment (July 25, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another mostly quiet night.  We did see European equities lift on better economic sentiment data (see below).  The G-20 meeting ended with a mostly banal communiqué.  There was some discussion of fiscal policy by the group.  However, the G-20 structure is so unwieldy that… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (July 22, 2016)

by Asset Allocation Committee In the most recent rebalance of our Asset Allocation portfolios, we introduced positions in gold.  Although the yellow metal is classified as a commodity, we view it more as a currency, admittedly one that is not backed by liabilities.  National fiat currencies are generally created in the credit process and are backed… Read More »

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