Research & News

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Greece: An Update (June 1, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady In February, we reported on the situation in Greece.  Over the past few months, there has been no resolution to Greece’s debt problem, despite numerous deadlines and meetings.  In our earlier report, we framed the conflict between Greece and the EU in terms of game theory. In this report, we will begin… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The U.K. Elections (May 18, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady The May 7th elections in the U.K. shocked pollsters, who had predicted a hung parliament.  Instead, the Conservatives (Tories) won an outright majority of seats in the legislature, allowing the party, led by David Cameron, to form a government without a coalition. In this report, we will begin by recapping the election… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Next Generation (May 11, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady On April 29th, Saudi King Salman announced a set of changes to his cabinet and to the order of royal succession.  We believe these changes are very significant, perhaps the most critical since the first royal succession in 1953. In this report, we will detail the changes announced by King Salman.  To… Read More »

Quarterly Energy Comment (May 6, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady The Market After a precipitous decline from June 2014 to late January, oil prices have been forming a base over the past few months. As the chart below indicates, oil prices have mostly been trading between $45 and $55 per barrel this year. The recent rise above $60 per barrel is raising… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Can Assad Survive? (May 4, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady Since the beginning of the year, rebels in Syria have been making steady gains against forces loyal to the Assad regime.  Over the past six weeks, these gains have accelerated.  The recent rebel victories are raising questions about the Assad regime’s ability to survive. In this report, we will recap the problems… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ideology of IS (April 27, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady The March edition of Atlantic Magazine published an article about Islamic State (IS) that examined its theology and ideology.  This article along with a paper from the Brookings Institute on the ideology of IS form the basis of our report this week. In this report, we will examine the intellectual foundations of IS, showing… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The AIIB (April 20, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady China has founded an infrastructure bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), to compete with the World Bank (WB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).  The U.S. has opposed the creation of this bank but, despite administration opposition, 57 nations have joined it, including 14 members of the G-20.  A chorus of… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Ideology of IS (April 13, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady On April 2, the P5+1[1] negotiating team and Iran announced a framework to deal with Iran’s nuclear program.  The framework is a “roadmap” to establishing a final agreement in June.  Negotiations on this issue have been underway for years; this framework could be a major step toward delaying Iran’s entry into the… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (April 2015)

Letter to Investors We lead off this quarterly letter where we ended our previous one, with the same quotation by Ben Graham, the father of securities analysis.  He wrote in his wonderful book, The Intelligent Investor, “Indeed, the investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.”  What a… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The New World Order: Part IV (April 6, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady In this final installment of our four-part series on The New World Order, we will examine how, in light of winning the Cold War, policymakers have been unable to settle on a set of key priorities and offer what we see as “glimpses” of a new policy emerging.  In a sense, the… Read More »

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