Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (October 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices remain rangebound. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 3.8 mb when a 2.0 mb decline was expected. The SPR declined 1.2 mb; since peaking at 656.1 mb in July, the SPR has drawn 15.3 mb. Given… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 16, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Of all the different economic indicators published by the government and private entities, one of the least followed, but potentially very enlightening, is the Census Bureau’s monthly report on business inventories. The report tracks the value of inventories on hand each month at the retail, wholesale, and manufacturing levels… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 15, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. Equity markets are pointing to a lower opening; stalled stimulus and rising COVID-19 cases are the likely culprits. We lead with China today, with a particular focus on Taiwan/U.S. relations. Pandemic news is next. As winter approaches, we… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Daily Comment today opens with a discussion of the International Monetary Fund’s improved outlook for the global economy, though much of the improvement simply reflects China’s early exit from the coronavirus pandemic. Other key developments today include Chinese President… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Daily Comment today provides more detail on the Bank of England’s possible future move to adopt negative interest rates, which we flagged yesterday before details were available. We also review some good news on Chinese trade statistics, although that… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Back to the Future? Prospects for a New Cold War Against China (October 12, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF This edition of our Weekly Geopolitical Report explores the prospects of a new Cold War between the United States and China. Based on the author’s personal experiences at the end of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, this report explores the various costs that would likely arise from a new Cold… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 12, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. It’s Columbus Day, so commercial bank operations are partially closed. There is no official market for Treasuries today, although you can still trade Treasury futures. Equity markets are working higher this morning. Judge Barrett’s confirmation process begins this… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Friday. Hurricane Delta is expected to make landfall in Louisiana today. U.S. equity futures continue to trend higher this morning. Since stimulus hopes are supporting the rally, we begin with commentary on the state of negotiations. … Read More »