Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 23, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The measures adopted to combat the spread of COVID-19 caused one of the most unusual recessions in American economic history. Although all recessions have their own unique characteristics, the recession that began in February was historically deep; it is likely already over too, making it one of the shortest… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. U.S. equity futures are a bit weaker as the financial markets continue to watch for some sort of fiscal action. We start today’s coverage with policy news, including an update on the latest with the fiscal stimulus talks… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (October 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices remain rangebound. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 1.0 mb when a 2.0 mb build was expected. The SPR declined 0.8 mb; since peaking at 656.1 mb in July, the SPR has drawn 16.5 mb. Given… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2020)
Letter to Investors | PDF Every four years, investors contemplate the upcoming presidential election and begin to worry in earnest that it will turn their world upside down. I hear from clients that their financial plans will all come crashing down if the “wrong” person is elected. Now, I realize that elections have consequences, and… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Daily Comment today again opens with coronavirus news, based on investors’ strong interest in negotiations over a possible new pandemic relief bill out of Congress. The big news there is simply that the talks are continuing. After the pandemic… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2020)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We believe that we are now in an economic recovery which we expect to be long and slow moving. The Federal Reserve will likely continue to be aggressively accommodative, as will other global central banks, providing a favorable backdrop for equities. With an accommodative Fed, we retain elevated… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Daily Comment today opens with the latest coronavirus news, given that optimism over a last-minute deal on pandemic relief legislation seems to be supporting the risk markets so far this morning. As we note after the coronavirus section, however,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Election of 1876: Part I (October 19, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Earlier this year, in the spring, we issued a five-part series on the election. At the time, we considered adding a section about a disputed outcome but decided that the odds of such a result were too low to consider. Since issuing that report, the likelihood of an uncertain and… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 19, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning; it’s Monday. U.S. equity futures are moving higher, the World Series is set (congrats to Tampa Bay and Los Angeles), and there is a plethora of news to discuss. China’s GDP confirms the recovery is gathering steam. We… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and Happy Friday! Equity markets are mostly steady this morning. Although it isn’t definitive, news out of the U.K. suggests a hard Brexit may be coming. We start with the latest on this topic. Stimulus news follows. China… Read More »