Research & News

Daily Comment (May 31, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Chinese equities rose sharply overnight as MSCI takes another look at adding this country’s equities to its emerging market indices.  In one sense, the exclusion of China’s equities in these key equity indices is hard to justify.  After all, China is an important country; its GDP… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 27, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, Chair Yellen speaks later this morning.  This talk has been long awaited; however, we don’t expect too much.  In our opinion, Yellen remains dovish and would likely prefer not to move rates this year.  However, she does need to maintain control of the… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (May 27, 2016)

by Asset Allocation Committee As promised, this week we will discuss how President Clinton’s policies would likely affect the financial markets.  It should be noted that, unlike Mr. Trump, Sen. Clinton has published most of her policy positions.  However, there have been apparent shifts in her policy positions as Clinton adjusts her campaign to react to… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 26, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Last week, the finance ministers of the G-7 met; now the leaders are meeting.  There is no lack of topics for discussion.  Although China isn’t a member, there has been some discussion of China’s activity in the South China Sea.  China, of course, suggests that this… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 25, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was another quiet night for news.  EU officials hailed a “breakthrough” in debt talks with Greece.  Officials met “into the wee, small hours of the morning”[1] and agreed to release €10.3 bn of new funds to Greece in recognition of the fiscal reforms already made… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 24, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet morning in front of Chair Yellen’s speech on Friday.  Yesterday, Dallas FRB President Harker added to voices calling for a rate hike this summer.  Fed funds futures are putting the odds of a June hike at about 32%, but the odds are over… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Sykes-Picot: 100 Years Later (May 23, 2016)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Last week marked the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, which divided the disintegrating Ottoman Empire territories in the Middle East into British-controlled and French-controlled areas following WWI.  One hundred years after the agreement, the effects of the borders established by these European powers continue to reverberate as the region remains unstable. … Read More »

Daily Comment (May 23, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The G-7 meeting ended with a reaffirmed pledge not to weaken currencies.  Japanese Finance Minister Aso said that the country will not be delaying a planned sales tax hike.  Additionally, BOJ Governor Kuroda indicated that the central bank is ready to use additional monetary stimulus as… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (May 20, 2016)

by Asset Allocation Committee As promised, this week we will discuss how President Trump’s policies would likely affect the financial markets.  It should be noted that Mr. Trump has not published any clear policy papers, so our descriptions are based on his public comments.  Next week, we will discuss the expected policies and financial market effects… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 20, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets were quiet overnight.  The G-7 meeting, being held in Japan, is probably the most important event going on at the moment.  So far, Japan has been politely discouraged from using tools to weaken the JPY.  We suspect that after this meeting ends, Japan will take… Read More »

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