Research & News
Daily Comment (August 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF The summer doldrums are upon us. Equity markets are mostly steady, with the dollar weakening. We detail the claims data below, but they are showing improvement. We lead with market and economic news this morning, followed by China. Foreign news… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories fell more than anticipated, declining 4.5 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.7 mb decline. The SPR declined 2.2 mb as… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 12, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF The mixed-to-higher tenor of risk assets so far today is understandable given the mixed news on the coronavirus. U.S. infections continue to moderate, but there has been little discernible progress on a new pandemic relief bill. Separately, Joe Biden announced… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Risk assets today are being buoyed by a continued moderation in U.S. coronavirus infections and hopes that the White House and congressional Democrats will return to the bargaining table to hash out a new pandemic relief bill. President Trump has… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Evolving U.S. Policy Toward China and Its Impact on Investors (August 10, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Looking forward to the coming years and decades, today’s long-term investors face a stark question: will they be investing in a China-dominated world molded by authoritarian leaders in Beijing? Or, will they be investing in a more familiar, Western-dominated environment reflecting the historic leadership of the U.S. and incorporating… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 10, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s Monday! Welcome back from the weekend. Equity markets are mixed. Foreign news leads off this morning as we cover the rise in unrest in Belarus, Lebanon, and Bulgaria. Policy news comes next, where we touch on the executive orders. … Read More »
Daily Comment (August 7, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s employment Friday! We cover the data in detail below, but the quick view is that the data came in better than forecast. It’s a modest risk-off morning, with weaker Chinese stocks. Our leadoff this morning is China as tensions… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 7, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Investors often fall into the habit of sloppy thinking about government spending and its relation to the economy. For example, it’s easy to focus only on total government-sector expenditures. According to the White House Office for Management and Budget, total government outlays in the U.S. averaged 32.3% of nominal… Read More »