Research & News

Daily Comment (October 28, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday!  It was a busy weekend in front of a busy week.  Here are the details: Baghdadi dead: The leader of Islamic State (IS), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, died over the weekend, killing himself with a suicide vest while… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (October 25, 2019)

by Asset Allocation Committee For nearly two years, the energy sector has dramatically underperformed the overall equity market and oil prices. This chart shows our S&P energy sector model.  We regress the overall S&P 500 and oil prices against the energy sector.  For most of the index’s history, these two variables explained much of the behavior… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 25, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday!  Markets are trading quietly this morning.  We are watching Johnson’s attempt to bring elections, China/U.S. trade talks, Syria reports and Argentine elections.  And, the EU moves to standard time this weekend.  Here are the details: Brexit: PM Johnson has called… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 24, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning!  It’s a rather quiet day in earnings season.  Mario Draghi holds his last meeting as president of the ECB, Boris Johnson waits for the EU and we have an update on Syria.  Here are the details: ECB: The statement held… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 23, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning!  An update on Brexit, Carrie Lam on the outs, trade update, Syria update and more on repo.  Here are the details: Brexit: It was both a good and bad day for Boris.  The good news is that his Brexit bill… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 22, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning!  It’s rather quiet in the markets this morning.  Trudeau wins another term, but not a majority.  The Brexit saga continues.  No government in Israel.  Some background on Chile.  Here are the details: Trudeau wins:  PM Trudeau won another term but… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part II (October 21, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we identified the need to stabilize three areas of the world prone to war in order to maintain global peace.  We focused on the Middle East and discussed the development of the Carter Doctrine, examining how the doctrine has been enforced since its inception.  In this… Read More »

Daily Comment (October 21, 2019)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Note: After a long hiatus, we have resumed podcasting.  Our new series, titled The Confluence of Ideas, begins with an overview of “Hegemonic Stability Theory” (the program title links to our podcast page).  Our plan is to record a new episode about… Read More »

Keller Quarterly (October 2019)

Letter to Investors I recently had the opportunity to give a talk to a large group of investment advisors, many of whom were longtime friends.  Even though we knew each other well, given the times we’re in I felt compelled to begin with a two-part preamble concerning investing that I sometimes give when speaking to… Read More »

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