Research & News
Daily Comment (August 6, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima. U.S. equity markets are a bit weaker after a strong showing yesterday. We lead off with an update on policy progress (or lack thereof), followed by foreign news, with an update… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 6, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories fell more than anticipated, declining 7.4 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.5 mb decline. The SPR was unchanged this week.… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 5, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Moderating coronavirus infections in the U.S. and continued progress in vaccine and treatment studies are helping buoy risk assets so far today, despite a major explosion in Beirut that initially raised fears of terrorism. Another important positive today is that… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Despite the mixed performance for equities so far today, reports are showing a moderation in new U.S. coronavirus infections, as well as hints of progress in the negotiations for a new virus relief bill in Congress. As always, we review… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rethinking China: Part II (August 3, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In Part I, we described China’s situation using Japan as a historical analog. This week, we will complete the analogy and examine in some detail the potential motivations of Chinese and U.S. policymakers. As always, we will conclude the discussion with potential market ramifications. China’s Situation Similar to Japan in… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 3, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy Monday! U.S. equity futures are ticking higher this morning and the dollar is stronger. There was lots of policy news, which will be our lead. The virus news is next; mask controversy isn’t just a U.S. issue. An update… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 31, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy St. Ignatius[1] Day! It’s Friday and the “dog days” of August await. Equity markets are mostly higher this morning after the major tech firms revealed impressive earnings. This may be one of the rare times where such earnings are… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 31, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The pandemic has clearly affected the economy. The decline in economic activity in Q2 will be historic. However, it is still unclear what effects will be temporary and what will be long-lasting. A recent paper suggests that one permanent change may be a reduction in older workers. COVID-19 has… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s GDP day! It has been well forecast for months that Q2 GDP would be an epic negative. It turned out to be bad, but not as bad as expected. GDP fell 32.9% on an annualized basis compared to expectations… Read More »