Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (August 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories fell more than anticipated, declining 4.7 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb decline. The SPR declined 1.8 mb; since… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 26, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s a pretty quiet news day today, which is probably fitting for the dog days of summer. Unfortunately, the lack of news also means there’s still no discernible progress on the next coronavirus relief bill in Congress. Another negative is… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 25, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF The newest Confluence of Ideas podcast episode, “The Dollar and the Eurobond,” is available today! This episode looks at the decision by the EU to create a mutualized bond, a debt instrument backed by the full faith and credit of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Biden’s Foreign Policy (August 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Traditionally, Labor Day is considered the point when an increasing number of Americans start paying attention to the November elections. As part of our analysis of the candidates, we create dossiers of the candidates and the leading figures with whom they surround themselves. In this report, we will comment on… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s Monday and the last full week of August (that month went by fast, didn’t it?)! There is a lot going on this morning. We have twin tropical storms, one already in the Gulf of Mexico and the other on… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy Friday! Equity futures are mostly marking time this morning. We lead off with foreign news; Iran, North Korea, and Russia are the focus. We also update news on China, followed by policy news and the latest on the pandemic. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 21, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the relationships we monitor is retail money market levels (RMMKs). In theory, any available liquidity could conceivably end up purchasing equities. But, RMMKs are used by investors in their brokerage accounts and thus are probably “closer” to equities compared to other forms of “near money,” such as… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF We are seeing some reversals of recent trends in the wake of the Fed minutes. Currently, equity markets are lower this morning. Some of the weakness is being attributed to the lack of new fiscal stimulus, but we think a… Read More »