Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking the Unthinkable (Again): Part II (January 29, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady

Last week, we published the first part[1] of this report looking at how the U.S. and other nations are changing their policies toward nuclear weapons.  This is something of a refresh of a report we did seven years ago.[2]  Since we published this earlier report, we have seen an increase in actual and potential nuclear proliferation.  Both the previous and current U.S. administrations are developing new nuclear weapons policies.  What spurred this two-part report was the recent false alarm in Hawaii.

Last week, we reviewed the development of nuclear weapons and the U.S. deployment policy from the end of WWII to the end of the Cold War.  We offered an analysis of how the theory of deterrence developed over time and introduced the history of the post-Cold War era.  This week, we will discuss how the Cold War arrangements have broken down in the post-Cold War world and the nuclear proliferation that has ensued.  We will also examine how states will cope with this changing nuclear weapons environment and the evolution of new nuclear doctrines.  This will include a discussion on civil defense, nuclear strategy and weapons development.  We will conclude, as always, with potential market ramifications.

View the full report

[1] See WGR, 1/22/18, Thinking the Unthinkable (Again): Part I.

[2] See WGR, 1/10/2011, Thinking the Unthinkable: Civil Defense.