Research & News
Daily Comment (July 31, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy St. Ignatius[1] Day! It’s Friday and the “dog days” of August await. Equity markets are mostly higher this morning after the major tech firms revealed impressive earnings. This may be one of the rare times where such earnings are… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 31, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The pandemic has clearly affected the economy. The decline in economic activity in Q2 will be historic. However, it is still unclear what effects will be temporary and what will be long-lasting. A recent paper suggests that one permanent change may be a reduction in older workers. COVID-19 has… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s GDP day! It has been well forecast for months that Q2 GDP would be an epic negative. It turned out to be bad, but not as bad as expected. GDP fell 32.9% on an annualized basis compared to expectations… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, declining 10.6 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.0 mb rise. The SPR was unchanged this week. In the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Investors today are hoping for more clarity on future monetary policy after the Federal Reserve finishes its latest policy meeting. Also in Washington, top tech firm executives are being grilled remotely by a House antitrust committee regarding the market dominance… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 28, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Even if the U.S. opening is looking a bit soft today, investors should be encouraged by an apparent stabilization in new U.S. coronavirus cases and the release (after considerable delay) of Senate Republicans’ proposal for a new coronavirus relief bill. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rethinking China: Part I (July 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF President and General Secretary Xi Jingping has changed the course of Chinese governance. Deng Xiaoping Peng created a collective leadership model to prevent the rise of another Mao. Leaders were carefully selected and surrounded by leading figures of the various factions of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Term limits… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy Monday! Baseball is back, and the NHL and NBA are close as well. Our friends on the Texas coast had to cope with Hurricane Hanna over the weekend. Equity markets are moving higher, the dollar is softening and the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy Friday! This Friday is starting with a risk-off tone. Worries about the economy after the rise in claims yesterday and rising tensions with China are affecting sentiment. But the overarching worry is that Congress will fail to deliver another… Read More »