Tag: reserve currency
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 22, 2026)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF
As the first half draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions than it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we think will dominate the international landscape for the rest of 2026. The report is not designed to be exhaustive. It focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we think will affect policy and markets going forward. We list the issues in order of importance.
Issue #1: Sea Lanes and Hegemony
Issue #2: Re-industrialization or Reserve Currency Status
Issue #3: The Donroe Doctrine
Issue #4: AI’s Non-Laissez-Faire Effect
Issue #5: Russia Falters in Its War Against Ukraine
Issue #6: Quantum Computing and the Next Technological Arms Race
Don’t miss our accompanying podcast for this report, which will be published as a Confluence of Ideas podcast later in the week. It will be available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify
Confluence Mailbag – #9 “Dollar Dominance, Private Credit, and the Great Rotation” (Posted 4/24/26)
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Podcast – #83 “The Geopolitics of US Dollar Stablecoins” (Posted 3/13/26)
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of US Dollar Stablecoins (March 9, 2026)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF
The expansion and regulation of stablecoins have become major policy goals of the Trump administration. This form of cryptocurrency has the potential to dramatically improve the transfer of funds between economic entities and could be a new source of demand for US Treasurys. In this report, we will define what stablecoins are and then examine the evolving regulatory framework, how the emerging stablecoin market relates to monetary and geopolitical history, and the ways in which stablecoins could become a tool of geopolitical power for the US. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
What Are Stablecoins?
Cryptocurrencies are currency-like assets that are transferred on permissionless blockchains. This means that a public ledger exists (the blockchain) where a buyer and a seller of a particular cryptocurrency can engineer a transfer without using an existing banking system. Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to hold a stable asset value relative to a fiat currency.[1] They differ from Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other cryptocurrencies, as these are not usually tied to any particular asset and thus their prices often fluctuate wildly. The initial use case for stablecoins was to offer holders of traditional cryptocurrencies an “off-ramp” from their cryptocurrency holdings.
Don’t miss our accompanying podcasts, available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Podcast – #63 “The Bessent Gambit” (Posted 3/28/25)
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Bessent Gambit (March 24, 2025)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF
Before the election, there was a sense developing that suggested a major shift in how the US manages the global financial system. This vibe was described as the “Mar-a-Lago Accord,” suggesting the changes were similar in magnitude to historic events such as the Bretton Woods Agreement, Nixon’s closure of the gold window, and the Plaza Accord. In recent weeks, articles and podcasts have emerged which discuss some of the ideas that are percolating. In this report, we lay out the issues facing the US economy, Treasury Secretary Bessent’s plans to address them (at least what we know so far), the likelihood that these plans would be implemented, and the associated potential market ramifications.