by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team  | PDF

As the first half draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions than it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we think will dominate the international landscape for the rest of 2026. The report is not designed to be exhaustive. It focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we think will affect policy and markets going forward. We list the issues in order of importance.

Issue #1: Sea Lanes and Hegemony

Issue #2: Re-industrialization or Reserve Currency Status

Issue #3: The Donroe Doctrine

Issue #4: AI’s Non-Laissez-Faire Effect

Issue #5: Russia Falters in Its War Against Ukraine

Issue #6: Quantum Computing and the Next Technological Arms Race

Read the full report

Don’t miss our accompanying podcast for this report, which will be published as a Confluence of Ideas podcast later in the week. It will be available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify