by Thomas Wash  | PDF

Even though tariffs dominate the headlines today, export controls have emerged as an additional key weapon in the economic warfare between the United States and China. While the world’s two largest economies continue imposing tariffs on each other’s goods, they are also now strategically blocking exports of crucial technologies and minerals to each other. This transformation of supply chains into battlegrounds largely reflects how the two sides are vying for dominance in artificial intelligence. By restricting access to vital components like semiconductor equipment and rare earth elements, both nations seek to slow their rival’s technological advancement while strengthening their own competitive edge.

In this report, we show how the US-China economic war has spread beyond tariffs to encompass export controls. These trade restrictions are another step in our recently published “escalation ladder” showing how the US-China conflict could worsen (see Figure 1, next page). We focus here on the controls over semiconductor technology and critical minerals and show that each side is trying to mitigate the other’s supply cut-offs. We wrap up, as always, with a discussion of the implications for investors.

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