Research & News

Daily Comment (November 10, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The Trump rally continues this morning; so does the bond selloff.  Like all analysts, we are still trying to figure out how the Trump administration will govern.  To some extent, we are seeing a bit of “hope and change” being projected on the markets… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 9, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] In an upset perhaps even exceeding Truman/Dewey, Donald Trump, a real estate mogul with no military or government experience, defied polls and betting sites, winning the Electoral College vote last night.  Although there are still some states that have not officially declared their results,… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 8, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There isn’t much more we can add on the election at this point.  It appears the financial markets have discounted a narrow Clinton win, but we would still not be shocked to see Trump prevail.  We have been concerned about the reliability of polls… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Inflation Targeting: What’s so special about 2%? (November 7, 2016)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Speaking at the Boston FRB conference on October 14th, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated that Fed officials are considering the benefits of running a “high pressure economy.”  This sparked speculation that the central bank would allow its inflation target to temporarily exceed 2% as the labor market and aggregate demand improve. The… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 7, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing significant market moves this morning, with equities and the dollar sharply higher but Treasuries and gold lower.  The proximate cause for the swings came from FBI Director Comey, who indicated in a letter to Congress that the newly discovered emails would… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 4, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Given this morning’s hefty economic releases, we will keep our opening comments short.  Equity markets are trading sideways to higher following this morning’s release of the October employment report (see below).  Some of the highlights from the report include an improving unemployment rate and… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (November 4, 2016)

by Asset Allocation Committee With the elections coming next week, it seems like a good time to look at how markets have historically performed during election cycles.  We will compare the current election cycle against previous cycles. The blue line in the chart above shows the indexed market return for the period 1928-2015.  To create this… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 3, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] First, we would like to congratulate the Chicago Cubs on ending their 108-year championship drought. A panel of London judges decided overnight that the U.K. must hold a Parliamentary vote before triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to start the two-year process to… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 2, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets continue to trade lower this morning as anxiety over the election has increased.  This morning, a Bloomberg Politics independent poll reported a tight race, with Clinton receiving 39% of the undecided vote over 35% for Trump.  When third-party candidates are added, Clinton… Read More »

Daily Comment (November 1, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news overnight came from China, where the PMI data was better than forecast (see below).  The chart below of the Caixin[1] PMI shows evidence of an improving Chinese economy. The PMI has been improving since Q1, with a clear rise since late… Read More »

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