Research & News
Daily Comment (November 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing significant market moves this morning, with equities and the dollar sharply higher but Treasuries and gold lower. The proximate cause for the swings came from FBI Director Comey, who indicated in a letter to Congress that the newly discovered emails would… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 4, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Given this morning’s hefty economic releases, we will keep our opening comments short. Equity markets are trading sideways to higher following this morning’s release of the October employment report (see below). Some of the highlights from the report include an improving unemployment rate and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 4, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee With the elections coming next week, it seems like a good time to look at how markets have historically performed during election cycles. We will compare the current election cycle against previous cycles. The blue line in the chart above shows the indexed market return for the period 1928-2015. To create this… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 3, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] First, we would like to congratulate the Chicago Cubs on ending their 108-year championship drought. A panel of London judges decided overnight that the U.K. must hold a Parliamentary vote before triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to start the two-year process to… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 2, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets continue to trade lower this morning as anxiety over the election has increased. This morning, a Bloomberg Politics independent poll reported a tight race, with Clinton receiving 39% of the undecided vote over 35% for Trump. When third-party candidates are added, Clinton… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big news overnight came from China, where the PMI data was better than forecast (see below). The chart below of the Caixin[1] PMI shows evidence of an improving Chinese economy. The PMI has been improving since Q1, with a clear rise since late… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the Reserve Currency: Part 2 (October 31, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady In Part 1 of this report, we discussed how the reserve currency facilitates trade, provided a short history of the dollar’s evolution as the reserve currency and examined the theoretical backdrop of the reserve currency and its role as a global public good. In this week’s report, we will conclude with the economics and… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 31, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Halloween! There was lots of news over the weekend. Let’s dig in: The return of the emails. On Friday, FBI Director Comey announced the agency had come across a massive number of emails related to the private server issue that somehow ended up… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 28, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee My weekend exercise is to take my dogs on long walks. Both dogs seem to enjoy these walks and I use the time to listen to podcasts. I recently listened to a long podcast that interviewed Sebastian Mallaby, a British journalist and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He has… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 28, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As we discuss below in detail, Q3 GDP rose 2.9%, exceeding estimates of 2.6%. The quick analysis of the data shows that two components were key to the report. First, investment rebounded but mostly due to a rebuild in inventories. The other major surprise… Read More »