Research & News
Daily Comment (March 28, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities were weak around the world but we are seeing a mixed recovery in the early U.S. trade. Technology remains under pressure. Here is what we are watching today: Oops: Yesterday, we bravely opined that Kim Jong-un probably didn’t go to China. Well, today we get… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s risk-on around the world so far today. Here is what we are watching: Is Kim in Beijing? Although a number of reports have speculated the leader of North Korea has traveled to China, this news has yet to be confirmed. If he did travel to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The North Korean Summit: Part II (March 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Easter holiday, the next report will be published on April 9.) Last week,[1] we discussed the six major nations involved in the North Korean issue and each country’s geopolitical goals, constraints and meeting positions for the recently proposed summit between the U.S. and North Korea. This week, we will examine… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk assets are rising this morning after the weekend media suggests the rhetoric on trade is much more potent than the reality. Here is what we are watching this morning: BREAKING: President Trump to expel 60 Russian diplomats, joining 14 other EU nations taking similar actions… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 23, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the Federal Reserve published its Financial Accounts of the United States report, formerly known as the Flow of Funds report. The report is a storehouse of important financial information. In this most recent report, a few things emerged that raised concerns. The first issue is net saving. Net saving is… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a dark and stormy night for risk assets. However, we are seeing glimmers of light in U.S. equity futures as they have recovered their overnight losses and have turned positive. Here’s what we are watching: A budget deal: The budget deal passed Congress, meaning… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-off morning so far. Equities are declining, Treasury yields are falling and the JPY is appreciating. The factors hitting risk markets are softer than expected PMI data (see table below) and trade fears. Here is what we are watching this morning: China trade: Tomorrow,… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed day! Here is what we are watching this morning: Powell speaks: The Fed meeting concludes today with virtual certainty of a 25 bps rate hike, taking the target to 1.75%. It should be noted that the target is actually the upper target rate; in… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Framing the Fed: The FOMC meeting begins today. Here we lay out the basic path for monetary policy. The chart on the left shows the implied three-month LIBOR rate, two years deferred, derived from the Eurodollar futures market. Note that the yield has increased dramatically… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The North Korean Summit: Part I (March 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady On March 8, officials from South Korea, including Chung Eui-yong, the director of South Korea’s National Security Office, came to Washington to brief U.S. officials on a recent dinner with Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea. The dinner was held in Pyongyang at North Korea’s Workers’ Party Headquarters, Kim’s workplace, where Mr.… Read More »