Research & News

Daily Comment (February 6, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a mostly quiet weekend, at least quiet based on the standards of the new administration.  Super Bowl weekend has become something of a national holiday in the U.S. and last night’s game was one for the ages.  So, even with injunctions and… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (February 3, 2017)

by Asset Allocation Committee Although our current allocation models exclude emerging markets, we still monitor various emerging market nations for potential opportunities.  A country that has been in the news recently is Mexico.  President Trump has been targeting Mexico and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for Mexico’s persistent trade surpluses with the U.S. This… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 3, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s employment Friday!  We have a plethora of charts below but, in short, the report was rather mixed.  The payroll survey was surprisingly robust, rising 227k compared to expectations of +180k.  Wages were soft, with yearly average earnings rising 2.5%, less than the 2.7%… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 2, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There’s a lot going on this Groundhog Day,[1] so let’s get started: The Fed: The FOMC meeting was a clear non-event.  Almost none of the language changed and the new committee didn’t give us any hints that it is prepared to raise rates any… Read More »

Daily Comment (February 1, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Fed Day!  The FOMC completes its first meeting of the year with a new slate of voters. This shows the 2017 voters on the FOMC.  The red ‘X’ represents permanent voters.  The 2016 regional bank presidents who won’t vote this year are St.… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 31, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There was a lot of political news overnight but it didn’t have much impact on financial markets.  However, this morning, Peter Navarro, the director of the newly formed National Trade Council, told the FT that Germany is using a “grossly undervalued” exchange rate to… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Future of the Euro (January 30, 2017)

by Thomas Wash January 1, 2017, marked the 18th anniversary of the induction of the euro, the European single currency. Once praised as the uniting force among European countries, the euro has become a source of populist backlash. From Greece to France, populist politicians have increased their political clout to the chagrin of the establishment.… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 30, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] One of the key themes we have been monitoring since Trump’s election has been the uneasy alliance between the populists and the GOP establishment.  We personalized this interaction as Speaker Ryan versus Chief Strategist Bannon.  The policies that would be supported from the Ryan… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (January 27, 2017)

by Asset Allocation Committee The consensus estimate for Q4 2016 S&P 500 operating earnings growth is 3.2%, which translates into a forecast of $118.35 per share for the S&P 500, using Thomson/Reuters data.  Using a similar growth rate, the Standard and Poor’s calculation of operating earnings generates annual earnings of $102.16.  Simply put, these two sources… Read More »

Daily Comment (January 27, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It was a quiet night overall; the big news is Q4 GDP, which we will cover below.  Here are a few items we are watching: The Italian Constitutional Court finally clarified the 2015 election reform law, known as the “Italicum.”  It ruled against a… Read More »

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