Research & News
Daily Comment (April 11, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity markets continue to meander; hopes for fiscal support continue to buoy equities but there are growing worries that the administration will fail to deliver. Geopolitical issues are a concern as well. Sean Spicer, the administration’s press secretary, seemed to add barrel bombs… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU at 60: Part II (April 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Easter holiday, the next edition will be published April 24th.) Last week, we began our retrospective on the EU. This week we will examine the post-Cold War expansion of the EU, including a discussion of the creation of the euro and the Eurozone. With this background, we will analyze the… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 10, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global markets are generally quiet this morning as investors try to discern how to handle President Trump’s new muscular exercise of foreign policy. After reading and reflecting over the weekend, we offer our take on the missile strike against Syria. First, this is a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 7, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee In our 2017 Outlook, our earnings forecast for the S&P 500 was $119.45 per share, up from $106.25 in 2016.[1] Based on new data and other trends, we are raising this forecast to $126.44 for this year. There are three reasons for the change. The spread between Thomson-Reuters and S&P operating earnings… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Employment Data Day! We cover the data in detail below but the payroll data, showing only a 98k rise, was quite disappointing. We suspect seasonal factors played a role as February weather was unusually mild while March was colder. It should also be… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Most of the time, Fed minutes are snoozers. On the other hand, there is often real action within the FOMC. The full meeting transcripts are published with a five-year lag and they show verbal sniping and open disagreement. By contrast, the minutes are sanitized… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday, Richmond FRB President Lacker announced he was stepping down immediately after admitting he was involved in a leak of confidential information to an analyst with Medley Advisors, a well-connected Washington think tank. In October 2012, Medley published details of Fed deliberations that were… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet and mostly sluggish day in global markets. The French are holding a presidential debate today at 8:40 pm local time (2:40 EDT) that will be closely watched. Current polling hasn’t changed; Le Pen and Macron will likely win the first round… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU at 60: Part I (April 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady On March 25th, European Union (EU) leaders from 27 nations gathered in Rome to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the organization. Although the EU currently consists of 28 members, the U.K. was absent due to its recent decision to leave the EU. On that day in 1957, France, West Germany,… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] BREAKING: There was a bombing on a St. Petersburg subway that has killed at least 10 and injured 50. This is still a developing story. Thus far, no group has claimed responsibility. With the recent widespread protests (according to reports, nearly 100 cities have… Read More »