Research & News
Daily Comment (May 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] News flow was quiet overnight. The biggest item came from the U.K. where a YouGov model projected a hung Parliament. It showed the Tories losing 20 seats to fall to 310, while Labour would pick up 28 seats, capturing 257. The required majority is… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back from the long weekend! Here are the stories that caught our attention: A break in Europe: Chancellor Merkel made headlines by indicating that, in the wake of the G-7 meeting, continental Europe must prepare to “go it alone” without the security support… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 26, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The dollar is in its third major bull market since currencies began floating in 1971. This chart shows the JPM dollar index which adjusts for relative inflation and trade. The previous two bull markets exhibited greater strength than the current one. Because of the dollar’s reserve currency role, there will always be… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The GDP data (see below) came in much better than forecast and that is giving a bounce to equities this morning. It’s a long Memorial Day weekend, which usually means the afternoon trade will become very thin and sluggish. The big news overnight was… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes held no surprises—barring a sudden downturn in the data, the next rate hike will come on June 14. Dallas FRB President Kaplan gave a speech in Toronto yesterday and indicated that he expects two more rate hikes this year; thus, if… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial and commodity markets are very quiet this morning. U.S. equity futures markets are mostly steady, the dollar is becalmed and there is a modest bid for Treasuries. There was some important news overnight. Here are the high points: Moody’s downgrades China: The U.S.… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] A deadly terrorist attack occurred in Manchester, U.K. last night as an apparent suicide bomber exploded a bomb outside a concert venue as a concert was ending. At present, 22 have died and over 50 were wounded. IS has taken responsibility for the attack. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part IV (May 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Memorial Day holiday, our next report will be published on June 5.) This is the final report of our four-part series on trade. This week, our discussion on trade continues with a look at the relationship between trade, employment and inflation. We will also conclude the series with market ramifications.… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The news over the weekend was fairly quiet, although there were several things we noted: The first leg of the president’s trip went rather well: President Trump offered support to authoritarians in Egypt and the Gulf State which was well received. Iran was isolated as… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 19, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the significant “known/unknowns” is the true condition of the labor market. The below chart highlights the issue. The blue line is the unemployment rate, while the red line is the employment/population ratio (scale inverted). From 1980 until 2010, these two series closely tracked each other. During the period since the… Read More »