Research & News
Keller Quarterly (April 2017)
Letter to Investors Perhaps you’ve heard it or felt it, but fear of financial market decline has become palpable among the public. It’s not just fear as reflected by TV shows or internet social media I’m talking about, but fear reflected by real people in conversation. I travel rather extensively, speaking to both advisors and… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing some follow through from yesterday’s French election rally, although the magnitude is understandably less. The financial markets appear comfortable that Macron will win in the runoff, and with good reason. It would be a real shocker to see Le Pen overcome… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Between a Rock and a Hard Place: The Gibraltar Dilemma (April 24, 2017)
by Thomas Wash Days after Theresa May triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, Brussels issued a nine-page document outlining its guidelines for Brexit negotiations. One of the guidelines gave Spain the authority to veto any deal between Gibraltar and the European Union (EU). The U.K. is currently recognized as holding sovereignty over Gibraltar and thus… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2017)
The economy continues on a stable path, along with relatively low levels of inflation. In this cycle, tighter Fed policy involves not only raising short-term rates, but also reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. The magnitude of growth of the Fed’s balance sheet in recent years was unprecedented. Its reduction is also unprecedented.… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 24, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets breathed a great sigh of relief as the first round of the French presidential election went about as expected. Macron and Le Pen will square off on May 7th to decide the presidency. Current polls show Macron with a commanding lead, generally… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 21, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed the impact of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet on the economy. This week we will discuss the effects of QE on financial markets. The relationship between the balance sheet and equities seems rather straightforward; expanding the balance sheet appears to be clearly supportive for… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On Sunday, the French go to the polls. The most recent polling shows Macron as the most popular candidate at 24.0%, with Le Pen second at 21.5%, Fillon at 20.0% and Mélenchon at 19.5%. Polls open at 8:00 am (CEST), which is 2:00 am… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 20, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The euphoria surrounding the election of President Trump appears to be waning. Although the sentiment polls remain elevated, we note the fixed income markets are clearly showing some jitters. This chart shows the two-year/10-year Treasury spread. Although the curve is steeper than it was… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 19, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In Georgia, Jon Ossoff fell short of achieving the 50% threshold needed for him to win the vacant House of Representatives seat in Georgia. As a result, Ossoff will face Karen Handel, the Republican candidate, in a run-off on June 8. His surprise showing… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here are some of the news items we are following this morning: PM May calls snap election: Reversing her earlier stance, Theresa May has called for a general election on June 8. The previously scheduled election wasn’t due until 2020, but there are rising… Read More »