Research & News
Daily Comment (June 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although there has been some market uncertainty due to political risks in the U.S. and U.K., the overnight news was relatively quiet. Market jitters seem to be due to concerns that tax and healthcare reforms have stalled, doubts as to whether Theresa May will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Are the Germans Bad? (June 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady At the NATO meetings late last month, the German media reported that President Trump had called the Germans “bad” for running trade surpluses with the U.S. The president threatened trade restrictions, focusing on German automobiles. Needless to say, this comment caused a minor international incident. Although such incidents come and go, it did… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although financial markets are quiet, there is a lot happening in the news. Here is what we saw as important: President Trump ready with two Fed governor nominations: The president, according to numerous media reports, is prepared to fill two of the current three… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 2, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the last FOMC minutes, policymakers signaled another hike at the upcoming June 14th meeting. We continue to closely monitor financial conditions but, so far, financial markets are rather sanguine about the impact of policy tightening. The blue line on the chart shows the Chicago FRB Financial Conditions Index, which measures the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The employment data, discussed at length below, was disappointing, with payrolls coming in weak. The bullish headline was that the unemployment rate fell to a new cycle low; in fact, a 16-year low. Sadly, that occurred because the labor force fell by a whopping… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There were a couple of political items of note. First, the White House announced the president will hold a Rose Garden gathering to announce his decision on the Paris Climate Accord. Reports suggest he will take the U.S. out of the agreement, although there… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] News flow was quiet overnight. The biggest item came from the U.K. where a YouGov model projected a hung Parliament. It showed the Tories losing 20 seats to fall to 310, while Labour would pick up 28 seats, capturing 257. The required majority is… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back from the long weekend! Here are the stories that caught our attention: A break in Europe: Chancellor Merkel made headlines by indicating that, in the wake of the G-7 meeting, continental Europe must prepare to “go it alone” without the security support… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 26, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The dollar is in its third major bull market since currencies began floating in 1971. This chart shows the JPM dollar index which adjusts for relative inflation and trade. The previous two bull markets exhibited greater strength than the current one. Because of the dollar’s reserve currency role, there will always be… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The GDP data (see below) came in much better than forecast and that is giving a bounce to equities this morning. It’s a long Memorial Day weekend, which usually means the afternoon trade will become very thin and sluggish. The big news overnight was… Read More »