Research & News
Daily Comment (May 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment day! We cover the data in detail below. The report was mostly strong, although wage growth continues to disappoint. On Sunday, the French go to the polls for a runoff election between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. The latest polls show… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The Federal Reserve did just about what we expected; it did acknowledge Q1 economic weakness but expressed no serious concern about slowdown, suggesting that it isn’t all that concerned about future growth. We note that fed funds futures are placing the odds of a… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet day in world markets, but the FOMC does conclude its meeting today and is widely expected to make no moves. The item of interest will be the statement. We expect it to acknowledge the recent slowdown, but we expect the weakness… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] May Day is over and markets have reopened. There wasn’t any market-moving news overnight, although there were some interesting items that provide some background for issues that will concern us in the coming months. Here is a roundup: China’s credit slowdown: Yesterday, we noted… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part I (May 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Donald Trump ran on a platform opposing free trade. Although Congressional support for free trade has been waning for some time, the general consensus among economists is that free trade makes the economy more efficient and supports global stability. However, the steady erosion of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. and the shrinking of… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s May Day, the international labor day. As noted above, a large number of financial markets are closed today, including China and most European markets. Direct news flow is less than normal due to the closed markets. Here are the items of note: See… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 28, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed the impact of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet on stocks and bonds. This week we will discuss the effects of QE on monetary policy. The FOMC dropped rates to near zero by January 2009. Although European central banks (including the ECB) have since taken… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets were fairly quiet overnight. The biggest mover was the EUR, which rose after Eurozone CPI came in at 1.9%, a bit higher than forecast. The financial markets are starting to discount a reduction in stimulus from the ECB, although Draghi’s comments yesterday suggest… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] ECB President Draghi is speaking at the time of this writing. Nothing has changed in terms of policy, but Draghi’s assessment of the economy is somewhat supportive, although still rather cautious. Initially, forex markets took his comments as modestly dollar bearish. However, in the… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] At 1:30 EDT, the White House is scheduled to release its tax proposal. There is quite a bit of speculation about what we will get from this announcement. Current “leaks” suggest a 15% tax rate for corporate taxes, including owner-operated firms, and a reduced… Read More »