Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 9, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee We have been monitoring the S&P 500 performance relative to new GOP administrations. Based on the historical pattern, the market has reached the average peak level a few weeks early. This chart shows the performance of the S&P 500 on a weekly close basis, indexed to the first Friday of the first… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 9, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In Britain, Theresa May’s decision to call a snap election in order to win a larger mandate backfired last night. The Tories, who were supposed to win more seats, lost their majority and barely squeaked out a plurality. Final results show that the Tories… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome to Super Thursday! Today, there is a slew of geopolitical events that may have an impact on global markets. In Europe, the ECB will hold a press conference about current and future policy decisions. In the U.S., former FBI Director James Comey testifies… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] In Iran, a gunman and suicide bomber attacked the Iranian parliament and the Ayatollah Rullah Khomeini shrine. The Sunni-led group ISIS has claimed responsibility for both attacks, its first significant attack in Iran, which is majority Shiite. According to the Iranian news media, previous… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although there has been some market uncertainty due to political risks in the U.S. and U.K., the overnight news was relatively quiet. Market jitters seem to be due to concerns that tax and healthcare reforms have stalled, doubts as to whether Theresa May will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Are the Germans Bad? (June 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady At the NATO meetings late last month, the German media reported that President Trump had called the Germans “bad” for running trade surpluses with the U.S. The president threatened trade restrictions, focusing on German automobiles. Needless to say, this comment caused a minor international incident. Although such incidents come and go, it did… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although financial markets are quiet, there is a lot happening in the news. Here is what we saw as important: President Trump ready with two Fed governor nominations: The president, according to numerous media reports, is prepared to fill two of the current three… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 2, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the last FOMC minutes, policymakers signaled another hike at the upcoming June 14th meeting. We continue to closely monitor financial conditions but, so far, financial markets are rather sanguine about the impact of policy tightening. The blue line on the chart shows the Chicago FRB Financial Conditions Index, which measures the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The employment data, discussed at length below, was disappointing, with payrolls coming in weak. The bullish headline was that the unemployment rate fell to a new cycle low; in fact, a 16-year low. Sadly, that occurred because the labor force fell by a whopping… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady, Kaisa Stucke, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There were a couple of political items of note. First, the White House announced the president will hold a Rose Garden gathering to announce his decision on the Paris Climate Accord. Reports suggest he will take the U.S. out of the agreement, although there… Read More »