Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 19th Party Congress (October 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady On October 18th, the Communist Party of China (CPC) will meet for the 19th Party Congress. China’s leadership for the next five years will be determined at this meeting. In this report, we will offer a background on China’s government, focusing on the difference between de jure (what is the official structure of… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a violent weekend. Here is what we are watching: The mess in Catalonia: Catalonia did hold an independence referendum over the weekend in the midst of a strong central government crackdown. Latest media reports suggest over 760 people were injured in clashes with central… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 29, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Financial Accounts of the U.S. was released last week by the Federal Reserve. The report is a treasure trove of data about the economy. This report shows the flow of funds and the balance sheet of the American economy. Although there is much to look at, here are a few charts… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 29, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy end of quarter day! Q3 comes to a close today and next week we begin the march to Q4. Markets are quiet at quarter end. Here is what we are watching: Social media and Russian bears: For the past several weeks, Facebook (FB, 168.73) has… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are mostly quiet today. There is a modest reversal of recent trends as the dollar eases a bit, but long-duration bonds are continuing to weaken. Here is what we are watching today: Tax talk: The GOP leadership sketched out the tax plan. Tax reductions… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The primary features of this morning’s trade are rising interest rates and a stronger dollar. Chair Yellen is becoming increasingly hawkish; so far, equity markets are holding their own. Here are some of the news items we are tracking: BREAKING: German FM Wolfgang Schäuble has indicated… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 26, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are generally quiet this morning. Here are the news items we are watching: The German elections reverberate: Although Merkel remains chancellor, the German political landscape is shifting radically. If the ruling coalition is made up of the CDU/CSU, FDP and the Greens, it will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Using History (September 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Geopolitics is the study of the exercise of power within a specific geographic area. Geopolitical analysis is a multi-disciplined examination that starts with geography and includes economics, sociology and, of course, history. Geopolitics is generally used for two purposes. First, it offers a multi-faceted way of looking at how nations behave. Second, it… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 25, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was a busy weekend. Here are the stories we are following: Merkel slips: Merkel’s CDU/CSU won the election as expected, but underperformed expectations. Her party took 32.9% of the votes compared to the last poll predicting a result of 34%. However, most polls going into… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 22, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee In a recent speech,[1] New York FRB President Bill Dudley made the case that the FOMC should continue to reduce monetary stimulus even though inflation remains below target. His contention is that benign financial conditions in the face of tighter policy are creating distortions in financial markets, resulting in the need for… Read More »