Research & News
Daily Comment (January 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are rallying around the world. Here is what we are watching this morning: Venezuela: As we noted yesterday, China and Russia[1] would be on the hook for billions of bad debt that a new government could simply default on, arguing the debt was incurred by… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2019)
Letter to Investors If you’re like most investors, you’re probably delighted to see 2018 in the rearview mirror. It was a year in which the stock market began on a euphoric note, in a January that proved to be the last month of a nearly two-year rising market. Indeed, from February 2016 to late January… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are rising modestly this morning. Here is what we are watching: Venezuela heats up: Venezuela has been a problem for a while. Its economy and government have essentially stopped functioning. Hyperinflation has set in. There is a massive exodus of Venezuelans[1] to other parts of… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a hard drop yesterday, equities are rising modestly this morning. Here is what we are watching: The importance of trade: Equity market action on Friday and Tuesday made it abundantly clear how focused financial markets are on trade. This is a five-day chart of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back from the long weekend. Equities are in the red this morning mostly on worries about global growth. Here is what we are watching today: The IMF, global growth and Davos: The IMF has reduced its world growth forecast to 3.5% for this year (down… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 18, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets struggled in 2018; although new highs were achieved twice during the year, volatility was elevated compared to 2017. This is a chart of the CBOE VIX index, a measure of implied volatility from the equity options market. An elevated VIX means implied volatility is high, which implies a wider dispersion… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Equities are moving higher this morning. Here is what we are watching today: About those tariffs: Yesterday, equity prices were jolted higher on reports that the Trump administration was considering rolling back tariffs on China. This chart shows March S&P futures; note the jump… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are drifting lower this morning. Here is what we are watching: Brexit: After facing the largest defeat in modern Parliamentary history, PM May survived a no-confidence vote but not by a great margin.[1] We have been discussing Brexit at length, so we don’t have much… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] All eyes are on the U.K. but financial markets are coping with the uncertainty rather well. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: PM May suffered a historic defeat. It is the largest defeat in the modern era, with her margin of defeat at… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2019)
Our expectations are that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, albeit at a more modest pace of 2.7% While we anticipate the current economic expansion will become the longest on record this March, the risk of a downturn rises toward the end of our three-year forecast period We expect the Fed to suspend its… Read More »