Research & News
Daily Comment (November 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. It’s rather quiet this morning with a modest risk-on tone to the markets. Yesterday, on the other hand, was active. Trump and Powell met. The government might shut down due to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thirty Years Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall: A Retrospective, Part II (November 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on Dec. 2.) In Part I of this report, we presented the first two of four ideas about the post-Cold War era and how well they fared. This week, we will cover the remaining two ideas and conclude with market ramifications.… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. Happy Monday! U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning on hopeful trade talk. PBOC eases. Hong Kong unrest intensifies. Iran also facing unrest. Lebanon flirting with banking crisis. Here are… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 15, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The yield curve has steepened since the FOMC started cutting rates, raising hope that a recession can be avoided. In this report, we will examine whether these hopes make sense. The above chart shows two recession indicators from two different regional Federal Reserve banks, Atlanta and New York. The former is a… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning. Lots of data today (see below). Some optimism on trade. Hong Kong is still very tense. Debt is on the rise. Here are… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. Hong Kong is deteriorating rapidly. Trade talks continue, but friction is emerging. Global economic data was ‘meh.’ Powell follows up his Congressional testimony today. Worries about disease. Here are all the… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] We are seeing some risk-off activity this morning as the markets digest the president’s speech yesterday. Chair Powell goes to Capitol Hill today. The IEA opines on energy. Turkey’s leader comes to Washington. Impeachment hearings begin today. Spain has a new coalition… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s a quiet morning from the cold Midwest. Auto tariff delay expected. The president speaks in New York. Investment may be weakening, and imports offer a warning. Here is what we are watching this morning: Tariff delay: The decision on whether to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thirty Years Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall: A Retrospective, Part I (November 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady On August 13, 1961, the German Democratic Republic (GDR), otherwise known as East Germany, began construction on a barrier that would slow the emigration of Germans to the Federal Republic of Germany, known as West Germany. Prior to the construction of the wall, it is estimated that 3.5 million East Germans emigrated… Read More »