Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Part II (September 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we discussed Venezuela’s economic and political situations. Part II begins with a discussion on migration with a focus on emigrant flows. We include an analysis of the problems caused by migration followed by an examination of the possible end to this crisis and the broader geopolitical issues. As always, we will… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is a lot going on this week. The FOMC meets, U.N. meetings are underway in New York and SCOTUS nominee Kavanaugh is facing new accusers. Also, financial markets were closed today in Japan, mainland China, Taiwan and Korea for an autumn holiday. Here is what… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 21, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In this week’s report, we will focus on the U.S. economy. Since the 1987 crash every major equity market decline has coincided with a recession. Thus, we pay close attention to the economy with the goal of projecting the next recession. This expansion, which began in June 2009, is now the second… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Equities are up as the dollar softens and Treasury yields are higher. Here is what we are watching today: More on Brexit: Well, that was ugly…the British press is describing the Salzburg conference as a “humiliation” and a “disaster.”[1] In a somewhat unexpected move,… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another quiet morning. Here is what we are watching today: More on Brexit: Yesterday, we covered some of the simmering issues on Brexit. Here are some of the day-to-day factors we are watching. The EU members, sans the U.K., are meeting in Salzburg, Austria to… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The news flow is unusually quiet this morning. The Kavanaugh hearings and trade continue to dominate the headlines. Here is what we are watching today: Trade: Financial markets are still struggling to discount the impact of the recent tariff announcement and China’s retaliation. It has become… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and G’mar Hatima Tova this Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. Equities are ticking higher this morning and oil is up strongly. Here is what we are watching today: Trade: As expected, the White House did put new tariffs in place on China. The… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Part I (September 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Venezuela has gone from “bad to worse” in recent years. In 1999, Hugo Chavez was elected president and took the country on a journey into Cuba-style socialism. Persistent government intrusion into the economy reduced private sector involvement. Although the oil sector was able to generate enough revenue to allow Chavez to fund his… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The weekend news was dominated by tropical events in the U.S. and the Far East, and the travails of SCOTUS candidate Kavanaugh. In addition, there were a plethora of retrospectives across the media focusing on “10 years after the crisis.” Here are the other items we… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 14, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Emerging markets have fallen in recent weeks. The decline is being driven by a couple of factors. First, the dollar has appreciated due to concerns that tariffs will restrict foreign country access to the U.S. consumer and the dollars they spend. In other words, if the U.S. restricts trade, countries will struggle… Read More »