Research & News
Daily Comment (August 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s very quiet this morning. The dollar is rebounding and precious metals are lower. The focus appears to be on the Fed and Jackson Hole. Here is what we are watching today: The Fed minutes: The minutes held no big surprises—the FOMC is preparing the market… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing a bit of risk-off this morning on the big political stories from yesterday. However, the emphasis is on “bit”; equity weakness isn’t excessive, the dollar is modestly weaker, gold is higher but not by a lot and Treasury yields are down but no… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The big story today is a bit of dollar weakness, which is putting some upward pressure on interest rates and helping precious metals. Here is what we are watching today: Trump talks: In a wide-ranging interview,[1] President Trump warned not to expect much from the Chinese… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkey Crisis: Part I (August 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Over the past few months, Turkey has become a major topic of interest. Recep Erdogan won re-election to the presidency in June 2018. This event was important because a referendum on a new constitution in 2017 gave the office of the president sweeping powers; the previous constitution was based on a parliamentary model… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Monday…back to the salt mines! It’s a “green” day so far this morning—equities are higher, but so are longer duration Treasury prices and beleaguered metals are even bouncing a bit higher. The dollar is a bit lower. Here is what we are watching today: Turkey… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 17, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI data for July. Inflation continues to rise; the overall rate rose 2.9% and the closely watched core rate (the rate less food and energy) rose to 2.4%, the highest rate since September 2008. Rising inflation raises policy concerns. In this week’s report,… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! It’s a mixed market situation and somewhat less volatile than action earlier in the week. Here is what we are watching today: End of quarterly earnings? President Trump tweeted[1] this morning that he is directing the SEC to study the costs and benefits of… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] A bit of risk-on has returned this morning. Trade hopes appear to be the key reason. The dollar is a bit weaker, while equities and commodities are higher as are Treasury yields. Here is what we are watching today: China trade talks: China is sending the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 15, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk-off has returned with a vengeance this morning. Despite a continued lift in the Turkish lira (TRY), global equity markets are lower. Some of this decline is being driven by a stronger dollar and cratering commodity prices. Here is what we are watching today: Contagion fears:[1]… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing some risk-on behavior this morning; the Turkish lira is higher but it looks more like a deceased feline rebound rather than anything of substance. Here is what we are watching today: Turkey: As noted above, the TRY is higher this morning, rebounding about… Read More »