Research & News
Daily Comment (January 2, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Back to the salt mines! The New Year, 2019 (hard to believe, isn’t it?), is starting out with a thud as weak Chinese data has sent equities into the red. Here is what we are watching this morning: The Chinese data: The PMI data[1] from China… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 21, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee (N.B. This is the last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2018. Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. The next report will be published January 4, 2019.) The U.S. economy is performing in line with the rest of the world. This chart shows the yearly change in U.S. and world ex-U.S. GDP. … Read More »
Daily Comment (December 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] [N.B. The Daily Comment will go on holiday from December 24 to January 2. From all of us at Confluence, but especially Thomas and me, thanks for reading and have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!] On Friday, December 14, we published our 2019… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] [N.B. The Daily Comment will go on holiday from December 24 to January 2. From all of us at Confluence, but especially Thomas and me, thanks for reading and have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!] On Friday, December 14, we published our 2019… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] [N.B. The Daily Comment will go on holiday from December 24 to January 2. From all of us at Confluence, but especially Thomas and me, thanks for reading and have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!] BREAKING NEWS: The U.S. is preparing to make… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On Friday, December 14, we published our 2019 Outlook: Red Sky at Morning report. If you missed it, you can find the report linked here or on our website. U.S. equity futures are lifting this morning after another hard decline yesterday. Oil prices are falling, with… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2019 Geopolitical Outlook (December 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. This will be the last WGR of 2018. Our next report will be published January 7, 2019.) As is our custom, we close out the current year with our geopolitical outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On Friday, December 14, we published our 2019 Outlook: Red Sky at Morning report. If you missed it, you can find the report linked here or on our website. The big event this week is the FOMC meeting that ends on Wednesday. Equity markets continue to… Read More »
2019 Outlook: Red Sky at Morning (December 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller |PDF Summary: Economy grows at 2.7%. Expansion makes a new duration record; no recession expected in 2019, although the risk of a downturn will be increasing. Core inflation max is 2.5% next year. Dollar weakens, although the direction is mostly dependent on administration trade policy. We expect preparations for… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 14, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets have come under pressure this autumn. The weakness has gained momentum in recent weeks. This chart shows the yearly change in the S&P 500 Index on a monthly average basis. We have added recession shading; in general, recessions tend to trigger bear market declines of 20% or more. In fact,… Read More »